Business Cycle and Traffic Fatalities

The paper tests the hypothesis regarding the assumed relation between economic cycle and mortality caused by road traffic accidents. The analysis has been done using fixed effect regression method on panel data collected in 20 EU member countries between years 1995-2008. The results (with a limited significance) may show that one percentage point decrease of the unemployment rate results in a one percentage increase in the road traffic mortality rate. The effect is caused by the increased traffic intensity as well as by changes in the drivers' behaviour that accompany the economic growth (e.g. higher consumption of alcoholic beverages). The results hint further that the strength of the relation differs for various age categories. The strongest relation between the economic cycle and the mortality was found for the young generation, 15-29 years of age. In this age group, one percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate means 1.77% increase in the road traffic mortality rate