Topological Risk Mapping of Runway Overruns: A Probabilistic Approach

The paper presents a topological risk mapping for aircraft overruns. The proposed procedure is based on the study published in 2008 by Hall et al. (Analysis of aircraft overruns and undershoots for runway safety areas. Airport Cooperative Research Program. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board; 2008). In that study the authors performed an analysis of aircraft overruns and undershoots for runway safety areas proposing the ACRP hazard probability model. In the present study the model was integrated into a two-step Monte Carlo simulation procedure to assess the risk of overrun accidents and to provide a topological risk map for a specific airport area. The model was modified to utilize traffic-related and weather-related factors described by statistical distributions of historical data of the airport under analysis. The probability distribution of overrun events was then combined with the Longitudinal and Lateral Location models Hall et al. (Analysis of aircraft overruns and undershoots for runway safety areas. Airport Cooperative Research Program. Washington, DC: Transportation Research Board; 2008) to obtain a two-dimensional grid assessing the probability of each area to be the end point of a runway overrun. The expected kinetic energy of the aircraft in a given point of the grid is used as severity index. The procedure is suitable for generalisation and it allows a more detailed planning of Airport Safety Areas (ASA), improving the correct implementation of ICAO recommendations. Results are also useful for land planning and structural analyses in airport areas. - Highlights: • Two-step probabilistic procedure for the topological characterisation of overrun risk in airports. • Monte Carlo simulation applied to existing overrun probability and location models. • Proposed topological severity index: Iso-Kinetic Energy Areas (KEA). • Expected kinetic energy almost constant for about 1000 m beyond the runway end