Forecasting Demand in Blood Supply Chain (Case Study on Blood Transfusion Unit)

Abstract—Blood Transfusion Unit is an institution under the supervision of the government that tasked to provide blood components for the community. Furthermore, this agency serves the community for the provision of information on the availability of blood, blood filtration of infectious diseases and blood storage. Problem of this case showed that there was out of stock of blood components that was caused by the blood components have low viability when long-time stored. Purpose of this study is to forecast demand of blood components for decision making process in supporting the activities of Blood Transfusion Unit. There were four methods of foresting involving moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing with trend which these methods were analyzed using POM-QM software. Finding showed that there were two patterns of forecasting results of blood components that categorized into time series of stationary and trend. Implication in this study is able to select the appropriate forecasting method for anticipate the uncertainty demand of blood components. Further research is recommended to consider the safety stock for calculating the minimum inventory at Blood Transfusion Unit. This calculation can be continued to determine the ordering using method ReOrder Point (ROP) to fulfil the demand