Strategic Investment and the Gains from Trade (N216-11)

This paper examines how trade liberalisation affects innovation, profits and welfare when firms are engaging in strategic R&D investment. We show that there are multiple equilibria including an autarky equilibrium for a range of high but non-prohibitive trade costs. At lower trade costs, only the trading equilibrium survives. Welfare is U-shaped in the trade costs, so a small fall in trade costs can be welfare reducing. However we find a threshold level of the effectiveness of investment above which trade is always welfare superior to autarky