Application of the Portfolio Theory to the Power Sector in Mexico

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2016. 2. 허은녕.Energy planning has become a most relevant subject due to its economic implications and the social welfare commitment of ensuring access to affordable energy. Over the last decades, Mexicos energy planning priority was to achieve universal access to electricity, thus least-cost optimization criteria has been the tool used to assess the expansion of power capacity. As a result of this policy, the energy mix relies heavily on fossil fuels. Nevertheless, a new paradigm in energy planning is expected to emerge from important changes in Mexican energy regulation, institutions and market mechanisms. In this context the portfolio theory is applied to find energy planning alternatives based on the risk minimization of generation technologies. Historical data on the cost of generation was used to quantify the risk, which is based on fuel fluctuation prices and investment costs. Additionally, the notion of realized generation capacity was used to find the most efficient mix of generation technologies in terms of risk, then, the best technological options to enhance energy security were identified. The results show that geothermal and hydropower plants are key technologies for decreasing risk due to fuel price volatility. Wind power is risky in terms of realized capacity. Nuclear and coal power plants are stable in capacity and operation costs. Thermal and gas technologies are the most vulnerable to fuel price variability. Finally, the key findings and implications for decision making when selecting generation technologies are presented.Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Background 1 1.2. Research Problems 4 1.3. Research Question 4 1.4. Research Objectives 5 1.5. Organization of the Thesis 6 Chapter 2. Energy Situation in Mexico 7 2.1. Energy Resources 8 2.2. Oil and Gas 9 2.3. Renewable Energy 10 2.3.1. Solar Energy 13 2.3.2. Wind Energy 14 2.3.3. Geothermal Energy 16 2.3.4. Hydropower 18 2.4. Current Situation of Power Generation 19 2.5. Energy Sector Structure in Mexico 23 Chapter 3. Theoretical Framework 32 3.1. Theoretical Background: Markowitz Portfolio Theory 32 3.2. Research Methodology 42 3.3. Technology Selection 42 3.4. Power Generation Cost 43 3.5. Technology Risk 44 3.6. Expected Portfolio Risk 45 3.7. The Model 46 3.8. Constraints 47 Chapter 4. Analysis and Results 49 4.1. Summary of the Input Data 49 4.2. Results 56 4.3. No-Constraints Optimization Scenario 56 4.4. Constrained Optimization Scenario 60 Chapter 5. Conclusions and Recommendations 64 5.1. Conclusions 64 5.2. Recommendations 65 5.3. Limitation of the Study 67 References 68 Appendix 77 Appendix A 77 Appendix B 79 Appendix C 84 국문 초록 90Maste