Policy Analysis on the Electricity Sector of the ASEAN Countries: Forecasting the Improvement of the Electrification Rate in Myanmar

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2015. 8. 허은녕.Myanmar is a developing country in Southeast Asia. It has plenty of natural resources for generating electricity, such as natural gas, some crude oil, and sources of renewable energy such as hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass energy. Despite its rich natural resources, Myanmar has a very low electrification rate of only 30%, the lowest among the ASEAN member-countries. This very low electrification rate and insufficient power supply are curbing the development of the country, not only economically but also socially and in other aspects. For the development of Myanmar, increasing its electrification rate and supplying sufficient power to its people are its big challenges. For these reasons, this thesis finds out how to improve the electrification rate of Myanmar as soon as possible. First, the 3As (Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability) model was used to compare the electricity industries of the ASEAN member-countries. Second, based on the 3As model results, a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis of Myanmars electricity industry was performed. The results of the comparison of the countries 3As and the SWOT analysis showed that Myanmars electricity industry has few strengths and many weaknesses. Some policy implications and measures for the improvement of Myanmars electrification rate were suggested, such as to increase natural-gas-based power generationto secure sufficient natural gas supply for power generation to formulate a National Electricity Development Plan, a Rural Electrification Plan, a Generation Mix Plan, and a Hydropower Development Planto reduce the transmission and distribution lossesto seek financing from international financial institutionsto create a good investment climate for investors in the electricity generation sectorto promote off-grid electrification through renewable energy technologies for rural electrificationand to import electricity from neighboring countries. It is strongly believed that based on the discussions, policy implications, and recommendations from this study, Myanmars electricity industry and electrification rate will soon improve after the country upgrades its electricity industry. This is because these results were based on the comparison of Myanmars electricity industry experience with the high-value experiences of other ASEAN member-countries.Table of Contents viii List of Figures xiii List of Appendix xv Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Research Motivation and Objective 1 1.2 Research Questions 3 1.3 Outline of Thesis 3 Chapter 2. Background 7 2.1. Country Information 7 2.2 Economic Structure and Development 10 2.3 Resource Potentials 12 2.4 National Energy Policy Overview 16 Chapter 3. Methodology and Data source 18 3.1 Data Source 18 3.2 Accessibility, Availability and Acceptability ( 3As Model ) Comparative Analysis 18 3.3. SWOT Analysis 23 4.1 Overview of the Electricity Energy Policy 26 4.2 Institutional Arrangement 29 4.3 Electricity Generating Power Plants 32 4.3.1 Current Operating Power Plants 33 4.3.2. Power Plants under construction and planning stages 35 4.4 Electricity Demand and Supply 42 4.4.1 Demand Forecasting 42 4.4.2 Electricity Supply (Electricity Generation) 45 4.5 Electricity Consumption 49 4.6 Electrification Rate 54 4.7 Transmission and Distribution Losses 56 4.8 Electricity Pricing 60 Chapter 5. Foreign Investment in the Power Development 63 5.1 Investment Procedures 64 5.2 Foreign Investments 70 5.3 Investment by Korea Power Companies 74 5.4 Benefits from Foreign Direct Investment 75 5.5 Points to be considered for investment 77 Chapter6. Comparison within ASEAN member Countries 79 6.1 Background Factors 80 6.1.1 Resource Potentials 81 6.1.2 Economic Background 84 6.2 "3As" Comparison (Accessibility, Availability, Acceptability) 89 6.2.1 Comparison for "Accessibility" indicators 90 6.2.2 Comparison for "Availability" Indicators 105 6.2.3 Comparison for "Acceptability" Indicators 126 Chapter 7. SWOT Analysis for Myanmar based on Comparison Result of ASEAN member countries 141 7.1 SWOT Analysis for Background factors 141 7.2 SWOT Analysis for "Accessibility" for sustainable electricity generation 143 7.3 SWOT Analysis for "Availability" of sustainability electricity generation 145 7.4 SWOT Analysis for "Acceptability" of sustainable electricity generation 147 Chapter 8. Key Findings and Recommendations 150 8.1 Key Findings 150 8.1.1 Findings on Background factors 151 8.1.2 Findings on Accessibility 152 8.1.3 Findings on Availability 154 8.1.4 Findings on Acceptability 157 8.2 Policy Implications 159 8.3 Recommendations to Improve the Electrification Rate 161 8.3.1 Investment Aspect 161 8.3.2 Policy Aspect 162 8.3.3 Generation Mix Aspect 162 8.3.4 Technical Aspect 163 8.3.5 Rural Electrification Aspect 163 Bibliography 167 Appendix 172Maste