Bayesian support vector regression for speed prediction with error bars

Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) make use of modern technologies to improve and develop transportation systems. They help to improve urban mobility for commuters. In most metropolitan cities, traffic congestion is a serious issue and needs to be dealt with effectively. ITS can help to reduce traffic congestion by utilizing traffic prediction algorithms. The accuracy of predictions is key to the success of ITS. In order to have more robust performance, predicted values should be accompanied by measure of uncertainty associated with predicted traffic state. Machine Learning algorithms such as Support Vector Regress ion (SVR) perform traffic predictions with a high degree of accuracy. However, such methods do not provide any information regarding the uncertainty related to predicted traffic conditions. We can only calculate prediction error, once data from the field is obtained. To this end, we propose Bayesian Support Vector Regression (BSVR), which can provide error b.ar s along with the predicted information. This can helps ITS to overcome the problem associated with uncertainty in predictions. We apply BSVR to perform traffic speed prediction for multiple prediction horizons. We also employ BSVR to anticipate (detect) variations in prediction error. To analyze, detection performance of BS VR, we perform sensitivity and specificity analysis on prediction data. We discuss the performance of BSVR for expressways as well as general road segments.Master of Science (Computer Control and Automation