How development threshold drives capital flows : a cross-country study

This thesis provides an empirical study on four measures of capital flows---total capital inflows and outflows, net capital outflows and capital flight--- from a panel of 130 countries over 24 years. The purpose of this thesis is to compare these types of capital flows to see their different patterns and relationship with economic fundamentals for countries of various stages of development. According to both cross-sectional and panel regression estimation results, the three types of capital flows are all positively correlated with income levels, except for capital flight which demonstrates a non-linear relationship with economic development. In general, rich countries experience high capital flows in both directions and high net capital outflows, while poor countries experience lower capital flows but suffer from high outward capital flight. Using the Hansen threshold estimation method, I identify a three-stage threshold effect of economic development on capital flight: for low-income countries, capital flight increases as the economy grows; only after the economy passes a certain threshold level, capital flight will decrease as the economy grows. The regression results also suggest that financial openness may stimulate overall capital flows but does not have strong effects on shaping capital flight. Moreover, high growth rate and net capital inflows are also positively correlated.DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (HSS