Global Trade iberalization: its Impact on the Export Competitiveness of China and Asean 5 in the United States Market

One of the most dramatic features of globalization is liberalization of trade in goods and services. Some people think that trade liberalization is irreversible - the only way to the future. Those countries, those companies, those people who adjust to a changing world will do better. Those who resist will suffer. The world keeps changing. But if we cling to the ideas and, models of yesterday we surely will pay a price. This study provides the comparison of possible effects of WTO and APEC trade liberalization commitments on the export competitiveness of China and ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) in the United States market. Its effect on real GDP, structural adjustment, exports share, product mix, industry structure, and export growth among those countries are predicted by using a ntultiregion, nuthisector, computational general equilibrium (CGE) model. While the degree of export rivalry or competition among China and ASEAN-5 in the United States market is examined by using a conventional shift-share methodology. Findings from this empirical work show that in general China will benefit more than ASEAN-5 countries from the WTO and APEC trade liberalization, especially in its export of more-labor intensive manufactures to the Ur tited States market. Among the ASEAN-5 countries, Singapore and Malaysia will gain advantage front trade liberalization by specializing in less-labor intensive manufactures exports to the United States market. On the other hand, Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand will suffer some disadvantages from trade liberalization in its export competitiveness in the United States market. However, some of the possible approaches to attaining a propitious outcome of the competition, and ways to ameliorate adverse effects of the rivalry are raised and discussed. Keywords: export competitivenessgeneral equilibrium modelglobal trade analysis project (GTAP): liberalizationsectorsspecializationtrad