The Ukraine crisis: another crossroads on Russia’s downward path

The energy aspects of the crisis in Ukraine are viewed by many western observers in terms of the energy security of European countries whose gas imports might be affected, and the perceived danger that Russia will use its energy resources to enhance its geopolitical position. Such starting points obscure vital questions for both Ukraine and Russia. The most pressing energy security issue – that millions of Ukrainians may face serious shortages of gas, electricity, and heat this winter – is downplayed, along with the long-term advantages that this crisis could produce for Ukraine if it reduces its dependence on imported gas. As for Russia, the obsessive focus on its government’s geopolitical aspirations obscures larger issues: that its economic influence over (and energy trade with) Ukraine and other neighbours is declining, its own economy is becoming more and more one-sidedly a supplier of oil, gas, and other raw materials to world markets, and its own development in the broadest sense is suffering as a result