Framingham Risk Score and the Risk of Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia

BACKGROUND: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) often represents the clinical manifestation of cognitive deterioration preceding Alzheimer's disease (AD). Currently, there are no reliable approaches for an objective evaluation of the risk of developing AD in MCI patients. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to verify whether the Framingham cardiovascular risk profile (FCRP) could be useful to identify patients at the highest risk of conversion from MCI to AD. METHODS: Patients with amnestic MCI (aMCI) were carefully investigated to assess their vascular risk profile. They were also submitted to a comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. The FCRP was calculated for each patient and the apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotype was determined from peripheral blood cells. The main outcome was defined as a conversion to AD within 24 months after inclusion. RESULTS: 385 consecutive aMCI subjects were included. Age, FCRP, and vascular age showed a fairly predictive value on conversion to AD. Selecting the subpopulation of ApoE ɛ4 carriers, we observed that FCRP had an increased performance in predicting the conversion. The rate of conversion increased from 12.5% in the FCRP low-risk group to 43.2% in the high-risk group (p < 0.0001). ApoE ɛ4 carriers had a 3.7-times increased probability of conversion with respect to the other subjects (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: FCRP assessment could be considered a reliable approach to predict conversion to AD in aMCI subjects. The presence of ApoE ɛ4 increases significantly the risk of conversion. These data confirm the narrow relationship between genetic and vascular risk factors in influencing the evolution of cognitive impairment