Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a reduced chemical kinetic mechanism of a gasoline, n-butanol blend in a high pressure rapid compression machine

A detailed evaluation of a recently developed combined n-butanol/toluene reference fuel (TRF) reduced chemical kinetic mechanism (Agbro, 2017) describing the low temperature oxidation of n-butanol, gasoline and a gasoline/n-butanol blend was performed using both global uncertainty and sensitivity methods with ignition delays as the predicted output for the temperature range 678 - 858 K, and an equivalence ratio of 1 at 20 bar. A global sampling technique was applied in the simulations in order to quantify the uncertainties of the predicted ignition delays when incorporating the effects of uncertainties in forward rate constants in the simulations. In addition, a variance-based global sensitivity analysis using a high dimensional model representation (HDMR) method was carried out to understand and rank the parameters responsible for the predicted uncertainties. The results showed that uncertainties in predicting key target quantities for the various fuels studied are currently large but driven by few reactions. Global sensitivity analysis of the mechanism based on predicted ignition delays of stoichiometric TRF mixtures, showed the toluene + OH route = phenol + CH3 to be among the most dominant pathways in terms of the predicted output uncertainties but an update on the mechanism based on recent data from the study of Seta led to the toluene + OH hydrogen abstraction reaction becoming the most dominant reaction as expected. For the TRF/n-butanol blend, hydrogen abstraction reactions by OH from n-butanol appear to be key in predicting the effect of blending. Uncertainties in the temperature dependence of relative abstraction rates from the ? and ? sites may still be present within current mechanisms, and in particular may affect the ability of the mechanisms to capture the low temperature delay times for n-butanol. Further studies of the product channels for n-butanol + OH for temperatures of relevance to combustion applications could help to improve current mechanisms. At higher temperatures, the reactions of HO2 and that of formaldehyde with OH also became critical and attempts to reduce uncertainties in the temperature dependent rates of these reactions would be useful