Trend analysis and forecasting of rainfall and floods in the Klang Valley

The purpose of this study is to determine the trend of amount of rainfall and number of flood incidents in the Klang Valley for the period of January 2008 to June 2013 for forecasting. The study was conducted using three analysis techniques, which were trend, time series and regression analyses. The results of the trend analysis showed that there was no significant trend in the graphs of rainfall and floods. Of the time series models used, the exponential smoothing model was found to have the lowest mean absolute value deviation (MAD) from the actual meteorological data and hence, was selected as the best forecasting model. Based on this model, the predicted values for Q3, 2013 in the Klang Valley for amount of rainfall and number of flood incidents were 4,103.24 mm and three respectively. Based on the results of the regression analysis, the correlation coefficient showed a weak relationship between the amount of rainfall and number of flood incidents. The results of the statistical analysis demonstrated that there is not enough evidence to indicate that there is a significant relationship between the two parameters