Model of medium-term forecasting of energy mix in Poland

The paper presents analyses based on data published by ARE S.A. (Energy Market Agency) concerning the balance and structure of electricity generation. The data include monthly amount of energy generated by main activity power plants (thermal, hydropower and wind), independent power producers and industrial combined heat and power plants. The forecasting method based on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) provides a tool for making a short-term forecast of electricity generation, together with its structure, by means of which it is possible to analyze the energy mix. The results of estimation and verification of the above-mentioned model are presented as well as selected forecast results