From the analysis of (closing value) stock market index like the Dow Jones Industrial average and the S& P500 it is possible to observe the precursor of a so-called crash. This is shown on the Oct. 1987 and Oct. 1997 cases. The data analysis indicates that the index divergence has followed twice a "universal" behavior, i.e. a logarithmic dependence, superposed on a well defined oscillation pattern. The prediction of the crash date is remarkable and can be done two months in advance. In the spirit of phase transition phenomena, the economic index is said to be analogous to a signal signature found in a two dimensional fluid of vortices
The aim was to determine the behavior of time series of selected indices. On these indices, I sought...
The problem of particular importance in financial risk management is forecasting the magnitude of a ...
Latex document of 38 pages including 16 eps figures and 3 tablesWe clarify the status of log-periodi...
From the analysis of (closing value) stock market index like the Dow Jones Industrial average and th...
peer reviewedWe analyze the evolution of several financial indices before the crash of October 1987....
Most previous models proposed for financial crashes have pondered the possible mechanisms to explain...
<p>The columns correspond to analysis of each crash. The solid vertical line together with the arrow...
. -- We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of lo...
We present an analysis of the time behavior of the $S$ & $P500$ (Standard and Poors) New York stock ...
We present an analysis of the time behavior of the S&P500 (Standard and Poors) New York stock ex...
Could the magnitude of the stock market crash of 19.10.1987 be predicted on the base of the data ava...
We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-per...
Abstract. We present a method for visualizing the pattern which we believe to be a precursor signatu...
The main objective of this study is to find out if it is possible to create a simple model that anti...
We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical de...
The aim was to determine the behavior of time series of selected indices. On these indices, I sought...
The problem of particular importance in financial risk management is forecasting the magnitude of a ...
Latex document of 38 pages including 16 eps figures and 3 tablesWe clarify the status of log-periodi...
From the analysis of (closing value) stock market index like the Dow Jones Industrial average and th...
peer reviewedWe analyze the evolution of several financial indices before the crash of October 1987....
Most previous models proposed for financial crashes have pondered the possible mechanisms to explain...
<p>The columns correspond to analysis of each crash. The solid vertical line together with the arrow...
. -- We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of lo...
We present an analysis of the time behavior of the $S$ & $P500$ (Standard and Poors) New York stock ...
We present an analysis of the time behavior of the S&P500 (Standard and Poors) New York stock ex...
Could the magnitude of the stock market crash of 19.10.1987 be predicted on the base of the data ava...
We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-per...
Abstract. We present a method for visualizing the pattern which we believe to be a precursor signatu...
The main objective of this study is to find out if it is possible to create a simple model that anti...
We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical de...
The aim was to determine the behavior of time series of selected indices. On these indices, I sought...
The problem of particular importance in financial risk management is forecasting the magnitude of a ...
Latex document of 38 pages including 16 eps figures and 3 tablesWe clarify the status of log-periodi...