Factor Analysis Of Trends In Energy And Metals Production And Consumption In Developed And Developing Countries

This paper presents a methodology used to combine energy and mineral market variables between Less Developed Countries (LDCs) and Developed Countries (OECD) over the past 24 years (I 966-1990). LDCs include all countries, except OECD and central planned economies (CIS) and other countries in Eastern Europe. This period permits a comprehensive view of the impact of the energy crisis and the changes in economic growth patterns, correlated with changes in trends of production and consumption of energy and metals in both country blocs. This complex relationship was evaluated by a factor model of consumption and production variables using the aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc industries. The following variables are used in the factor model: export dependence, geographic concentration of mining production, geographic concentration of refined demand, geographic concentration of refined production, import dependence, refined demand growth, stability of demand, income elasticity of refined demand, price stability, intensity of use, and intensity of energy. The model for all commodities shows that the factor scores projections for LDCs and OECD blocs depicted a clearly divergent trend after the two oil shocks (1973-1979), when the intensity of energy variable presents high loading in the factor. 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