Follow Up Estimation Of Aedes Aegypti Entomological Parameters And Mathematical Modellings

The dengue virus is a vector-borne disease transmitted by mosquito Aedes aegypti and the incidence is strongly influenced by temperature and humidity which vary seasonally. To assess the effects of temperature on dengue transmission, mathematical models are developed based on the population dynamics theory. However, depending on the hypotheses of the modelling, different outcomes regarding to the risk of epidemics are obtained. We address this question comparing two simple models supplied with model's parameters estimated from temperature-controlled experiments, especially the entomological parameters regarded to the mosquito's life cycle in different temperatures. Once obtained the mortality and transition rates of different stages comprising the life cycle of mosquito and the oviposition rate, we compare the capacity of vector reproduction (the basic offspring number) and the risk of infection (basic reproduction number) provided by two models. The extended model, which is more realistic, showed that both mosquito population and dengue risk are situated at higher values than the simplified model, even that the basic offspring number is lower. © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd.1033360371Barbazan, P., Guiserix, M., Boonyuan, W., Tuntaprasart, W., Pontier, D., Gonzalez, J.-P., Modelling the effect of temperature on transmission of dengue (2010) Med. Vet. Entomol., 24, pp. 66-73Chen, S.C., Liao, C.M., Chio, C.P., Chou, H.H., You, S.H., Cheng, Y.H., Lagged temperature effect with mosquito transmission potential explains dengue variability in Southern Taiwan: insights from a statistical analysis (2010) Sci. Total Environ., 408, pp. 4069-4075Farnesi, L.C., Martins, A.J., Valle, D., Rezende, G.L., Embryonic development of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): influence of different constant temperatures (2009) Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz., 104 (1), pp. 124-126Focks, D.A., Haile, D.G., Daniels, E., Mount, G.A., Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera:Culicidae): analysis of the literature and model development (1993) J. Med. Entomol., 30, pp. 1003-1017Focks, D.A., Haile, D.G., Daniels, E., Mount, G.A., Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (Diptera:Culicidae): simulation results and validation (1993) J. Med. Entomol., 30, pp. 1018-1028Frank, P.M., (1978) Introduction to System Sensitivity Theory, p. 385. , Academic Press, New YorkHale, J.K., (1969) Ordinary Differential Equations, p. 332. , John Wiley and Sons, New YorkKroeger, A., Horstick, O., Christine, R., Kaiser, A., Becker, N., The potential for malaria control with the biological larvicide Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) in Peru and Equador (1995) Acta Trop., 60, pp. 47-57Leite, M.B., Bassanezi, R.C., Yang, H.M., The basic reproduction ratio for a model of directly transmitted infections considering the virus charge and the immunological response (2000) IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol., 17, pp. 15-31Lindsay, S.W., Birley, M.H., Review: climate change and malaria transmission (1996) Ann. Trop. Med. Parasitol., 90 (6), pp. 573-588Lu, L., Lin, H., Tian, L., Yang, W., Sun, J., Liu, Q., Time series analysis of dengue fever and weather in Guangshou, China (2009) BMC Public Health, 9, p. 395Maidana, N.A., Yang, H.M., Described the geographic propagation of dengue disease by traveling waves (2008) Math. Biosci., 215, pp. 64-77Mandell, G.L., Bennett, J.E., Dolin, R., (2005) Mandell, Douglas and Bennett's principles and practice of infectious diseases, p. 3662. , Elsevier Inc., Philadelphia(1989) The Arboviruses: Epidemiology and Ecology, 5, p. 241. , CRC Press, Boca Raton, FLNelson, M.J., (1986) Aedes aegypti: Biologia y Ecologia, p. 50. , Organización Panamericana de la Salud, Washington, DCRegis, L., Monteiro, A.M., Melo-Santos, M.A.V., Developing new approaches for detecting and preventing Aedes aegypti population outbreaks: basis for surveillance, alert and control system (2008) Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz., 103 (1), pp. 50-59Rueda, L.M., Patel, K.J., Axtale, R.C., Stimer, R.E., Temperature development and survival rates of Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) (1990) J. Med. Entomol., 27 (5), pp. 892-898Thu, H.M., Aye, K.M., Thein, S., The effect of temperature and humidity on dengue virus propagation in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes (1998) Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Public Health, 29 (2), pp. 280-284(1980) Biologia y Control del Aedes aegypti, p. 80. , Vector Topics, U.S. Department of Health and Human ServicesYang, H.M., Modelling vaccination strategy against directly transmitted diseases using a series of pulses (1998) J. Biol. Syst., 6 (2), pp. 187-212Yang, H.M., A mathematical model for malaria transmission considering global warming and local socio-economic conditions-the sensitivity analysis (2001) Rev. Saúde Pública, 35 (3), pp. 224-231Yang, H.M., Della Negra, M., Lian, Y.C., Queiroz, W., Hotta, L.K., The serorevertion and the survival related to HIV infection among children: statistical modeling applied to retrospective data collection (2003) Math. Comput. Modell., 38, pp. 251-267Yang, H.M., Ferreira, C.P., Assessing the effects of vector control on dengue transmission (2008) Appl. Math. Comput., 198, pp. 401-413Yang, H.M., Macoris, M.L.G., Galvani, K.C., Andrighetti, M.T.M., Wanderely, D.M.V., Assessing the effects of temperature on the population of Aedes aegypti, the vector of dengue (2009) Epidemiol. Infect., 137 (8), pp. 1188-1202Yang, H.M., Macoris, M.L.G., Galvani, K.C., Andrighetti, M.T.M., Wanderely, D.M.V., Assessing the effects of temperature on dengue transmission (2009) Epidemiol. Infect., 137 (8), pp. 1179-118