Dairy Cows Estrus Estimation Using Predictive And Quantitative Methods [estimativa De Estro Em Vacas Leiteiras Utilizando Métodos Quantitativos Preditivos]

Brazil is the sixth world's larger milk producer, increasing its production at an annual rate of 4% above other producer countries. Part of this raise in milk production was due to the use of several technologies that have being developed for the sector, mainly those related to genetics and herd management. Accurate estrus detection in dairy cows is a limiting factor in the reproduction efficiency of dairy cattle, and it has been considered the most important deficiency in the field of reproduction. Failing to detect estrus efficiently may cause losses for the producer. Quantitative predictive methods based on historical data and specialist knowledge may allow, from an organized data base, the prediction of estrus pattern with lower error. This research compared the precision of the estrus prediction techniques for freestall confined Holstein dairy cows using quantitative predictive methods, through the interpolation of intermediate points of historical herd data set. A base of rules was formulated and the values of weight for each statement is within the interval of 0 to 1; and these limits were used to generate a function of pertinence fuzzy that had as output the estrus prediction. In the following stage Data mining technique was applied using the parameters of movement rate, milk production, days of lactation and mounting behavior, and a decision tree was built for analyzing the most significant parameters for predicting estrus in dairy cows. The results indicate that the prediction of estrus incidence may be achieved either using the association of cow's movement (87%, with estimated error of 4%) or the observation of mounting behavior (78%, with estimated error of 11%).38823832387ADRIAANS, P., ZANTINGE, D., (1996) Data mining, , Harlow: Addison-Wesley, 145pAT-TARAS, E.E., SPAHR, S.L., Detection and characterization of estrus in dairy cattle with an electronic heatmount detector and an electronic activity tag (2001) Journal of Dairy Science, 84 (4), pp. 792-798ÁVILA PIRES, M.F. et al. Comportamento de vacas da raça Gir (Bos taurus indicus) em estro. Arquivo Brasileiro de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, v.55, n.2, p.187-196, 2003BACKER, E., (1995) Computer-assisted reasoning in cluster analysis, , New York: Prentice-Hall, 400pBERSON, ASMITH, S.J. Data warehousing, data mining and OLAP. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1997. 640pBEZDEK, J.C., SANKAR, K.P., Fuzzy models for pattern recognition (1992) Nova Iorque, , IEEE, 245pDISKIN, M.G., SCREENAM, J.M., Expression and detection of estrus in cattle (2000) Reprodution Nutrition Development, 40 (5), pp. 481-491EARDLEY, D.D. et al. Decision tree classifiers to confirm pneumonia diagnosis. In: THE AMERICAN MEDICAL INFORMATICS ASSOCIATION SYMPOSIUM, 2002, Scottsdale, Estados Unidos. Anais... Scottsdale, Unites States of America: American Medical Informatics Association, 2002. p.1-5. Capturado em: 12 dez. 2004. Online. Disponível na Internet: http://www.amia.org/pubs/ symposia/D005602.PDFERADUS, W.J., Oestrus detection in dairy cattle using a fuzzy inference system (1998) Application and Ergonomics in Agriculture, 14 (1), pp. 185-188FAYYAD, U., STOLORZ, P., Data mining and KDD: Promise and challenges (1996) Future Generation of Computer Systems, 13, pp. 99-115FRENCH, P.D., NEBEL, R.L., The simulated economic cost of extended calving intervals in dairy herds and comparison of reproductive management programs (2003) Journal of Dairy Science, 86 (SUPL.1), pp. 52-54FIRK, C.A., Automation of oestrus detection in dairy cows: A review (2002) Livestock Production Science, 75, pp. 219-232HANSEN, D. Vantagens e limitações das tecnologias de reprodução animal. São Paulo: Lagoa da Serra, 2003. Capturado em: 10 out. 2004. Online. Disponível na Internet: http://www.lagoa.com.br/main_artigos.asp?idNoticia =2&opcao=IntegraHEERSCHE, J.R.G., NEBEL, R.L., Measuring efficiency and accuracy of detection of estrus (1994) Journal of Dairy Science, 77 (9)KASTELIC, J.P., Computadorized heat detection (2001) Advancement in Dairy Technology, 13, pp. 393-402KIDDY, C.A., Variation in physical activity as an indication of estrus in dairy cows (1977) Journal of Dairy Science, 60, pp. 235-243NEBEL, R.L., Automated electronic systems for the detection of estrus and timing of AI in cattle (2000) Animal Reproduction Science, 60, pp. 713-723RORIE, R.W., Application of electronic estrus detection technologies to reproductive management of cattle (2002) Theriogenology, 57, pp. 137-148STURMAN, H., Importance of inseminating only cow in estrus (2000) Theriogenology, 53 (8), pp. 1657-166