Analysis of econometric indicators in the case bluetongue disease in domestic ruminants in the Republic of Serbia and modeling for control and monitoring

Bolest plavog jezika (BPJ) je virusno nekontagiozno oboljenje domaćih i divljih preţivara, koje se preteţno javlja kod ovaca, izazvano RNK virusom iz roda Orbivirus i familije Reoviridae. Virus plavog jezika (BTV) se prenosi hematofagnim insektima iz roda Culicoides. Dinamika i širenje bolesti uslovljeno je klimatskim faktorima, meĊusobnom interakcijom virusa sa populacijom vektora i prijemĉivom populacijom domaćina. BPJ se javlja sezonski u kasnim letnjim mesecima obiĉno, kada je populacija vektora najbrojnija. Virus se u prirodi odrţava infekcijom vektora i prijemĉivih domaćina, kao što su preţivari i glodari. Virus plavog jezka (BTV) u Repulici Srbiji je kontrolisan vakcinacijom kao i u većini zemalja evropske unije (EU). Strategija borbe protiv BTV se bazira na depopulaciji obolelih ţivotinja u zaraţenim podruĉjima, najĉešće u kombinaciji sa vakcinacijom i uvoĊenjem visokih biosigurnosnih mera na farmama i u objektima u kojima se drţe ţivotinje. Primenom ovakvih mera moţe se obezbediti odsustvo bolesti većih razmera. Zbog znaĉajnog uticaja klimatskih faktora na pojavljivenje i širenje vektora bolesti, kao i samog naĉina drţanja prijemĉivih ţivotinja, ne postoji univerzalni obrazac kontrole BTV. Cilj ovog istraţivanja je da se prikaţe celokupna epizootiološka situacija u R Srbiji, nastala kao posledica pojave BPJ i da se izvrši analiza ekonomskih šteta. Osnovni cilj je razvijanje i primena stohastiĉkog modela, koji meĊusobno povezuje klimatske faktore, populaciju vektora, prijemĉive domaćine i mere intervencije, odnosno mere kontrole BPJ. Model simulira dnevno prenošenje bolesti vektorima kroz prijemĉivu populaciju, a sam intenzitet prenošenja, odnosno brojnost i vektorski kapacitet uslovljeni su klimatskim faktorima, odnosno dnevnim promenama proseĉne temperature. Za ceo ispitivani period obolelo je ukupno 2.786 ovaca, 271 grlo goveda i 25 grla koza. Od ukupnog broja obolelih uginulo je 1.272 ovce, 41 grlo goveda i 11 koza...Bluetongue disease (BTD) is a viral, non contagious disease of domestic and wild ruminants, mainly present in sheep, caused by the RNK virus of the genus Orbivirus, family Reoviridae. Bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by hematophagous insects from the genus Culicoides. The dynamics and spreading of the disease depend upon climatic factors, the interaction of the virus with the vector population and the susceptible host population. BTD is a seasonal disease, appearing mainly during the late summer months when the vector population is usually numerous. In its natural environment the virus cycle is maintained through infection of the vectors such are ruminants and rodents. BTV in the Republic of Serbia is controlled by means of vaccination, same as in the EU countries. The strategy against BTV is based upon the depopulation of the diseased animals in the infected area, most often in combination with vaccination and strict biosecurity measures on the farms and premises where the animals are housed. By applying such measures, the presence of the disease on a larger scale can be avoided. Due to the significant influence that climatic conditions have upon the vectors, and the way in which the susceptible animals are kept, there is no universal mode for BTV control. The aim of this study was to describe the complete epizootiological situation for BTD in R. Serbia, as well as to determine the economic losses. The main target was to develop and implement a stochastic model which would integrate the climate conditions, vector population, susceptible hosts and BTD control measures. The model simulates the daily disease transmission by vectors through the susceptible population, and the intensity of the transmission, as the number and vector capacity are conditioned by climate conditions i.e. daily average temperature variations..