The determinants of trade opportunity of Mainland China Enterprises in Taiwan when ECFA and Cross-Strait bilateral investment protection and promotion agreement go into effect

貿易機會為產業間貿易或產業內貿易的發生或開拓，對於以貿易為經濟命脈的臺灣，如何創造貿易機會更是極為重要的課題。近年來簽訂國與國或區與區之間的貿易協定，以制定簽約國或地區相互貿易的優惠條件已蔚為一股風潮。 臺灣與中國大陸僅相隔臺灣海峽，由於地理位置鄰近、歷史背景及語言文化共通等因素，兩岸貿易往來頻繁而密集，於2009年開放陸資來臺投資、2010年簽訂「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」（Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement，ECFA），此後於2012年由海基會與海協會達成共識簽訂「海峽兩岸投資保障和促進協定」（簡稱：投保協定），並於2013年2月1日正式生效，使兩岸雙向貿易更加通行無阻。 本研究以2013年經濟部投資審議委員會「陸資投資事業營運狀況調查表」之問卷資料為分析對象，以廠商規模、行業類別、資本密集度、技術研發比率、國外投資比率、人力資本、關稅障礙、政策法規制約程度、項目開放不足程度、同業競爭共10個決定因素，歸納為廠商特性、營運策略與貿易障礙三大構面，運用Probit Model來探討ECFA與投保協定生效後，影響兩岸貿易機會的決定因素。 實證結果發現，「廠商規模」、「資本密集度」、「技術研發比率」與「政策法規制約程度」為影響兩岸貿易機會的重要決定因素。“Trade Opportunities”define as the development of inter-industry or intra-industry trade. For country like Taiwan, trading is an essential part of nation’s economy. As such, how to create trade opportunities is a very important topic. Singing of FTA（Free Trade Agreement）between countries or regions to reduce the trade barriers and develop preferential terms for mutual trading is booming in recent years. Due to geographical proximity（separated by the Taiwan Strait）, historical background and the common language and cultural factors, cross-strait trade has been more frequent and intensive. In 2009, allowing Mainland China Investors to invest in Taiwan. And in 2010, both parties signed the“ECFA （Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement）”. Then in 2012 “Cross-Strait Bilateral Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement” was signed and effective on February 1, 2013, making cross-strait bilateral trade even more unimpeded. This study conducts an empirical research based on the questionnaire survey data of “2013 Investigation Report on Operation Status of The Mainland China-Investment Enterprises”from Ministry of Economic Affairs in Taiwan. I classify the questionnaire survey data into 10 determinants: the scale of the firm, the industry category, the capital intensity, the R&D （research and development）ratio, the foreign investment ratio, the human capital, tariff barriers , the degree of control in policy and regulations, the degree of openness of the project, and the competition. These can be summarized into three aspects: the characteristics of the firm, the operational strategy and the trade barriers. Then using the Probit Model to analyze the determinants of trade opportunity of Mainland China enterprises in Taiwan when ECFA and Cross-Strait Bilateral Investment Protection and Promotion Agreement go into effect. The empirical results show that“the scale of the firm”、“the capital intensity”、“the R&D ratio”and“the degree of control in policy and regulations”are most important determinants of trade opportunity of Mainland China enterprises in Taiwan