The Greek sovereign debt crisis: causes and future

現今世界中，國家之間緊密結合已達前所未有之程度，一國或一區域內之小型銀行之金融困境甚有可能瞬間爆發成全球性經濟危機。二零零八年之金融海嘯即為一例證，其影響範圍遍及全球，嚴重程度不在話下。繼金融海嘯後，最為人關注之另一危機非歐洲債務危機莫屬。歐洲債務危機涵括數個歐元區會員國，而至今依舊深陷債務危機中之國家即為希臘。希臘債務危機之處置及發展牽動著整個歐元區未來動向以及歐元身為全球主要貨幣之一之前景。執事之故，瞭解希臘債務危機有其必要性及迫切性。希臘債務危機自二零零九年爆發至今已邁入第八年，期間亦有數輪紓困案及金融援助，惟希臘債務危機至今仍尚未解決。 本論文欲探討之問題包括：希臘債務危機爆發之根本原因為何？為何歷經數輪紓困案及金融援助後，希臘債務危機依然尚未解除？最新一輪之紓困案是否能一掃過去陰霾，為希臘債務危機劃下句點？ 由於希臘債務危機本質上仍在發生當中，武斷預測其最終結果不免不切實際。惟經比較三輪紓困案之細項內容後，仍能推論出第三輪紓困案可能造成之影響，繼而預測希臘債務危機是否得以由此次紓困案解決，抑或於第三輪紓困案後，危機仍將持續發展甚或惡化。 現今有關希臘債務危機之研究相當零散，其資訊分散於各項學術著作當中。本論文希冀竭力統整分散於各學術著作中之資訊，撰寫為一有關希臘債務危機完整之著作。The world is ever more interdependent both politically and economically. Nations are extensively intertwined that financial crisis in one country or region may emerge as a global economic catastrophe. The European Sovereign Debt Crisis, which involves a series of crises in various member states, perfectly exemplifies the situation. Among the countries that were exposed to crises, Greece is currently at the epicenter, on which the integrality of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) hinges. This thesis explores three questions: What caused the Greek sovereign debt crisis? Why have hundreds-of-billions-of-euro rescue funds failed to end the crisis? Will the most recent bailout agreed in 2015 solve the crisis this time? This thesis applies a qualitative method, and analyzes information and statistics derived from diverse scholarly works and official documents. Because of the ongoing nature of the crisis, there could be no unequivocal predictions of how the crisis would end. However, comparing the details of all the bailout packages, there is a possibility that the Greek sovereign debt crisis would continue for at least a few more years. Until now the information on the Greek sovereign debt crisis scatters around different scholarly works. This thesis compiles those information into one piece of study. Moreover, since the mishandling of the crisis could incur devastating effects across the globe and thus there needs to be follow-up research. This thesis also lays the foundation for future studies on the topic