Integral swot-anp-fanp model for prioritization strategies of sustainable development of ecotourism in National park Đerdap

U cilju unapređenja iskorišćenosti potencijala nacionalnih parkova putem kreiranja turističke ponude koja se temelji na promociji raznolikosti prirodnih i kulturnih vrednosti, u radu je definisan strateški plan uvođenja koncepta ekoturizma. Ova doktorska disertacija ima za cilj razvoj integralnog modela za prioritizaciju strategija održivog razvoja ekoturizma u Nacionalnom parku Đerdap koji će omogućiti unapređenje procesa višekriterijumskog odlučivanja u cilju povećanja ukupnih performansi celog regiona. Brojni alati, koji se koriste kao podrška višekriterijumskom odlučivanju, su se u praksi pokazali kao pouzdani i efikasni. U sprovedenom istraživanju kao polazna osnova u analizi stanja na terenu korišćena je situaciona SWOT analiza. Međutim, jedan od njenih glavnih nedostataka je to što ne posvećuje dovoljno pažnje međusobnoj komparaciji, uslovljenosti i logičkoj zavisnosti između atributa. Stoga, u okviru disertacije SWOT analiza je nadograđenja kombinovanjem klasičnih i fazi metoda višekriterijumske analize na osnovu čega je definisan integralni SWOTANP- FANP model za prioritizaciju strategija. Ispitivanjem interakcija i uslovljenosti između atributa donosiocima odluka je omogućen realniji prikaz problema i olakšan proces donošenja odluke. Rezultati koji su postignuti u okviru istraživanja predstavljaju hronološki redosled primene generisanih strategija za implementaciju ekoturizma. Predloženi model za razvoj ekoturizma treba da dovede u ravnotežu sve komponente turističkog proizvoda. Cilj koji se želi ostvariti u praksi primenom predloženog modela je implementacija ekoturizma čime se ostvaruje očuvanje životne sredine i kulturnih osobenosti lokalne zajednice, uz stalno poboljšanje kvaliteta doživljaja posetilaca u Nacionalnom parku Đerdap. Predloženi model ima i svoj univerzalni karakter te se može koristiti kao uzor i za druge nacionalne parkove i zastićena prirodna područja, koja se suočavaju sa sličnim problemom strategijskog planiranja i upravljanja. Ključni doprinos ove doktorske disertacije je unapređenje sistema odlučivanja u nacionalnim parkovima i proširenje pomenute metodologije u ovoj oblasti razvojem integralnog višekriterijumskog modela. Osnovni motiv izrade ovog rada je prevashodno njegova praktična primena u realnom poslovanju nacionalnih parkova i zaštićenih prirodnih oblasti zbog univerzalnosti predloženog modela.In order to improve the utilization of the potentials of national parks by creating tourism offer based on promotion of the diversity of natural and cultural values, this paper defines a strategic plan which introduces the concept of ecotourism. This doctoral thesis aims to develop an integrated model for prioritization strategies for the sake of the sustainable development of ecotourism in the National Park Djerdap - which will enable improvement of the multi criteria decision making process in order to increase the overall performance of the entire region. Numerous tools, which were used to support multi criteria decision making, have been proved to be both reliable and efficient in practice. In this research, we used situational SWOT analysis as a starting point in the analysis of the situation on the ground. However, one of its major drawbacks is that it does not pay enough attention to mutual comparison, causality and logical dependencies among attributes. Therefore, within the thesis, the SWOT analysis was upgraded by combining the conventional and fuzzy multi criteria analysis based on which an integrated SWOT- ANP- FANP model for prioritization strategy has been defined. Studying interaction and interdependence among attributes has enabled decision makers to have a more realistic view of the problem and it has facilitated the decision making process as well. The results achieved in the research represent a chronological order of application of generated strategies for ecotourism implementation. The proposed model of ecotourism development should bring balance to all the components of the tourism product. The goal to be achieved in practice by applying the proposed model is implementation of ecotourism, which would result in preservation of the environmental and cultural characteristics of the local community combined with the constant improving of the quality of experience that visitors of National Park Djerdap have. The proposed model has its own universal character and it can be used as a model for other national parks and protected natural areas which face similar problems of strategic planning and management. The key contribution of this doctoral thesis is the improvement of decision-making system in national parks as well as expansion of the afore mentioned methodology in this area by development of integrated multi-criteria model. The main motive of this paper is primarily its practical application in the real national parks’ management and protected natural areas because of the universality of the proposed model