The Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Factors: Taiwan's Strategic Calculation to Join TPP

本研究以美國歐巴馬政府之「重返亞太」戰略，以及美國於亞太地區所倡導「太平洋經濟合作協議」──TPP為研究標的，並以國家利益理論為研究理論基礎，分析美國面對亞太地區經濟力的強勁成長，以及中國大陸以飛奔之勢成為世界第二大經濟體，美國基於國家利益而開始主導TPP之成立與運作。在這過程之中，美國與中國之戰略如何運用?而台灣在國民黨與民進黨兩大黨都支持加入TPP的情況下，台灣加入TPP之途，到底可能面對那些中國與美國的戰略運用?台灣加入TPP之利與弊各有那些?本研究以以歷史研究法、文獻分析法為研究方法，經由所得文獻之整理、分析、歸納，提出本研究之研究成果有三項: 一、中國國力提升將拉高台灣進入TPP的機會 隨著中國國力提升，美國對中國的「圍堵」，將更加緊繃嚴密，台灣角色必然也會越來越突顯，在美國強力圍堵的戰略運作下，台灣進入TPP之機會越來越高。 二、 海島型經濟特色的台灣，向區域開放市場，是台灣唯一的選擇 台灣海島型經濟，產業大幅仰賴出口，目前中國大陸又是台灣主要出口的地區，面對市場主要對手如南韓、日本已積極簽署FTA，台灣必須積極投入，才不致被邊緣化，中國大陸市場也才不會被對手所取代。 三、TPP與FTA是全球化趨勢下的必然結果 在各式區域經貿協議之中，施行零關稅及強調非關稅的壁壘，簡化文書作業及海關程序，更是打破國與國之間疆，使得關稅制度保護本土產品的制度設計初衷，不復存在，如此強者愈強，弱者愈弱，區域經濟形成一種M型化的競爭態勢。This thesis focuses on strategy of U.S. Pivot to Asia Pacific region and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) with the theory of state interest to analyze how the U.S. manages the establishment and operation of TPP on the consideration of the strong economic growth of Asia-Pacific region and the status of rising China as the second largest economic entity around the world. During the process, what is the strategy of the U.S. and China? On the other hand, under the domestic support of two major parties in Taiwan to join TPP, Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), on the way to join TPP, what diplomatic strategies will Taiwan confront when it deals with China and the U.S.? In other words, what are the pros and cons for Taiwan to join TPP? Based on historical analysis, document analysis, this thesis found three major findings: 1. The increase of power of Rising China will enhance the opportunity of Taiwan to join TPP As China’s state power increases, the U.S. will adopt much more serious “Containment” strategies. Under this circumstance, the role of Taiwan will become much more important. Therefore, under the intense U.S. containment strategies, the opportunities for Taiwan to join TPP will become higher. 2. Open market to the region is the choice for sea-island economic Taiwan Taiwan belongs to sea-island economic, which relies on export on the development of industry, and China becomes the major export partner of Taiwan. Facing the challenge of South Korea and Japan which have signed FTA with China, Taiwan has to engage in a more active way to the open market to avoid isolation on the competition of Chinese market. 3. TPP and FTA are the definite result of globalization Among all kinds of regional agreements, zero tax barrier and simplification of administration process on document and custom examination are the keys to break the obstacle between country and country. Moreover, by doing so countries could break the limitation on protecting the local products, which further fosters the M shape competition among the regional economic development between the strong and weak countries