The Study on China's Oil Strategy in 21st Century-Extend Study on Sino-russian Oil Cooperation

隨著中共經濟蓬勃發展，對石油需求急遽增加，迄2014年底石油對外依存度已超過60%，石油已成為制約中共發展的重要因素；如何在經濟發展中維持穩定的石油供應來源、提高石油使用效率、優化能源結構及強化石油戰略儲備，均為中共石油戰略規劃的重要考量。其中，中共石油戰略係以「走出去」為核心戰略規劃，並透過發展政治、外交、軍事及經濟等外交，推動與國際政經情勢密不可分的油氣合作，積極開發多元化管道油源、分散對外石油運輸管道，以保障石油供應安全；此舉不但牽動國際強權石油競合關係，更進一步重組全球油氣結構；另一方面，中共石油外交作為衝擊美、日等強權在產油國之利益。此外，各油產國如中東、非洲及中亞地區，各自因內部政經、族群及宗教等情勢動盪，對中共石油外交作為形成諸多挑戰；故此，本論文係從中共地緣戰略考量為出發點，探討中共面臨詭譎多變的國際情勢下，如何在中東、非洲、中亞等油產區推動油氣合作及外交，並兼論與俄羅斯的油氣合作關係；而近年來中共發展「一帶一路」戰略規劃，加速周邊油氣外交，並將發展重心轉移至歐亞地區，在東亞地區形成中國與俄羅斯及美、日兩大勢力抗衡，亦改變了國際石油版圖。Along with China’s rapid growth of economic development, its demand for oil has dramatically risen up. As of 2014, China’s oil import dependency ratio has exceeded 60%, indicating oil has already become a critical ingredient in China’s development. How to maintain stable oil supply, increase the efficiency of oil consumption, improve the energy structure, and enhance the oil strategic reserve are among China’s key considerations on oil strategic planning. China’s oil strategy centers on “going globally,” pushing forward the oil-gas cooperation overseas by developing political, diplomatic, military and economic relationships. To safeguard the security of its oil supply, China has proactively exploited multiple oil resources and constructed various oil transportation channels. China’s behavior not only poses impact on the competition and collaboration among powerful nations but also reshapes the global oil-gas structure; on the other hand, China’s “oil diplomacy” has also threatened the interests among great powers, such as the United States and Japan in oil producing areas. Furthermore, the domestic political, economic, ethnic and religious turmoil in oil producing areas, such as the Middle-East, Africa and Central Asia, also poses tremendous challenges to China’s oil diplomatic strategy. Therefore, with China’s geographic strategy in mind, the thesis investigates how China promotes oil-gas diplomacy and cooperation with those oil producing countries under such a capricious international environment. In addition, the thesis also probes into the Sino-Russia oil collaboration relation. In recent years, China has developed “One Belt and One Road” strategy, which expedites peripheral oil-gas diplomacy and switches its emphasis to Eurasia area. In East Asia, China and Russia’s oil cooperation has formed a new camp, which takes on the U.S. and Japan’s collaboration and also changes the distribution of the global energy power