The Impact of the Change in China’s Export Structure on the EU-China Economic Relations

自2000年開始，中國和歐洲之間的經濟關係有顯著提升。在這期間儘管貿易緩慢地發展，對於中國來說，歐盟從2004年起取代了美國和日本的領先成為中國第一大的貿易夥伴，而中國對於歐洲來說目前是僅次於美國的第二大貿易對象。而夥伴關係的是基於兩方之間的貿易互補性，進而不斷地持續擴大。 然而最近幾年，中國的出口結構已朝向技術密集的層面發展，事實證明中國的出口結構和歐洲已有相當程度的類似，例如一些資本貨物和運輸設備。儘管部分的研究是針對歐洲和中國的貿易競爭性，此篇文章針對了歐洲和中國之間因出口結構改變所造成的影響。 為了分析出口結構所帶來的影響，首先透過線性回歸模型分析。再配合定性分析和文獻的輔助了解這些變化是如何影響到兩方之間的經濟合作和糾紛。 經過分析發現，中國出口結構的變化並不會對兩方的經濟貿易關係有任何直接的不良影響，但卻導致了保護主義的開始、引發了部分爭端，進而影響到兩方之間的經濟關係惡化。The economic relations between China and Europe have increased dramatically, especially since the 2000’s. Although trade started slowly, the European Union has become China’s number one trading partner, ahead of Japan and the US, since 2004 and China is now the EU’s second largest trading partner after the US. This status of “partnership” is based on a great complementarity between the two sides, which enabled them to expand their trade continuously. However, in the recent years, China’s export structure has started to evolve and become increasingly technology-intensive. Indeed, its export structure is becoming quite similar to that of Europe, exporting traditionally Western EU products, such as capital goods and transportation equipment. While some focused on the competition China represents for Europe, entering Europe’s traditional export markets, this paper analyzes the impact of the change in China’s export structure on the EU-China economic relations. To do so, I first used a linear regression model to analyze the impact of the change in China’s export structure on the EU-China economic relations and then performed a qualitative analysis, as well as, literature review to understand how these changes affect disputes and cooperation between the EU and China. I found that the change in China’s export structure did not have any direct bad impact on the EU-China economic relations. However, it led to protectionism and disputes which were in part responsible for the deterioration of the EU-China economic relations