A Study of China’s Role in North Korean Nuclear Crisis by Analyzing Her Behavior in Six-party Talks

第二次朝核危機爆發後，適逢美國對伊拉克發動戰爭，中共有感美國在伊拉克戰爭中凸顯的「單邊主義」作風，體察到美國處理北韓核武問題的嚴肅態度，深恐一旦美國決定對北韓採取行動，中共必遭波及，將嚴重影響其經濟發展與社會穩定。為化解北韓核武危機，中共改變「旁觀者」角色，積極扮演「調解者」與「參與者」的角色，陸續舉辦數輪的「六方會談」，揭開朝鮮半島歷史新頁。是故，本論文冀望能從北韓核武問題中，探討中共的朝鮮半島政策，進而探析其在「六方會談」中的角色演變。主要研究目的包括：（一）瞭解北韓發展核武的動因；（二）探究中共在「六方會談」中的角色演變；（三）探析建構東北亞安全機制的可能。 中共在「六方會談」中的作為，具體呈現於以下幾項：（一）介入的政策考量，包含其在朝核危機的立場、朝鮮半島政策與戰略思維等；（二）角色轉變：旁觀者-協調者-參與者角色變化；（三）對東北亞安全機制構建的影響。此外，北韓核發展趨勢難以逆轉，且中共認為北韓政權崩潰較其成為「核大國」對中共國家戰略之發展影響更鉅，是以，中共對北韓核問題未來可能採取之策略：一是不讓北韓發動挑釁導致美國再度強化同盟關係；二是不讓西方採取過當制裁行動激化北韓採取失序作為。同時在維持「和平機制談判」與「確保周邊安全穩定」基本指導原則下，呼籲持續在「六方會談」基礎上，積極參與、推進北韓核問題解決，並以地區和平機制或制度談判，將維持地區和平穩定置於首要，反對以武力或威脅解決北韓核問題，並在此前提下推進朝鮮半島穩定及無核化發展，以為中共國家戰略發展與地區安全，建立外部安全環境。After the outbreak of the second North Korean nuclear crisis, the US launched the war against Iraq. This war manifested US unilateralism which has aroused strong Chinese concern about the orientation of US policy in this region. The PRC realized any malicious action taken by Washington DC against Pyongyang would impair China’s economic interest and social stability. In order to effectively solve regional predicament brought by North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons, the PRC decided to play the role of a facilitator and participant instead of a bystander in this crisis by taking part in several rounds of Six-party Talks. This thesis probes into China’s policy towards the Korean peninsula and further detects the Chinese real intension in participating Six-party Talks. Main researches of this paper also include finding the rationale behind Pyongyang’s stubborn will in developing nuclear weapons, the changing roles played by China in Six-party Talks, and the possible solutions for all parties involved in establishing Northeast Asian security mechanism. What China acts in Six-party Talks reveals her stance on North Korean nuclear crisis, manifests her policy toward the peninsula, and makes her national strategy clear. By actively taking part in the Talk, China’s intention of changing her role from a bystander to a facilitator and participant is also quite obvious. Hence, Six-party Talks stand very important in establishing the Northeast Asian security mechanism. In addition, China understands North Korea’s policy of keeping nuclear weapons should not be altered and that a fallen North Korea is a much bigger thread to China than a nuclear one. Thus, Beijing is assumable to take up two different approaches in this nuclear crisis. The first one is to convince Pyongyang to refrain from provoking the US and thus prevent any excuse for Washington DC to fortify the strengths of its allies in the Northeastern Asia. The second approach is to stop the West from taking excessive sanction against North Korea and agitating the later to adopt radical action. Researches in this paper also indicate that China, under the guideline of keeping regional stability through peace negotiations, shall continue her efforts to push Six-party Talks and solve the crisis. After all, a nuclear-weapon-free Korean peninsula prioritizes when Beijing strives for a better foreign atmosphere to secure her national interest and maintain regional stability