The relationship between housing price and low fertility rate in Taiwan.

台灣近年來面臨決定性的人口轉型，並邁入少子高齡化社會。根據台灣內政部戶政司的資料顯示，台灣之育齡婦女總生育率(Total Fertility Rate)於西元2003年起皆低於1.3人，成為超低生育率(the lowest-low fertility)之國家。因此，政府目前已將少子化現象視為國家安全問題，極力鼓吹國民正視此議題，同時以生育補貼鼓勵國民生育。過去雖有文獻探討少子化之成因，卻多僅以論述形式從人口及社會的角度切入，鮮少自經濟的觀點來探討。然對於家庭的生育行為而言，經濟因素中生育成本的多寡應是導致少子化的主要因素，且本研究認為，總體經濟因素中的高房價更可能占了舉足輕重之角色。有鑑於此，本研究綜合社會及經濟的變數(房價指數、女性勞動參與比率、失業率、家戶所得年增率、物價指數年增率)以模型實證研究，運用共整合分析檢視影響少子化的因素，並以Granger因果關係檢定了解各變數與生育率之領先落後關係。 研究結果顯示生育率與房價及家戶所得年增率有共整合關係，亦即長期而言有顯著關係。而根據Granger因果關係檢定，生育率領先於房價與女性勞動參與率，但落後於失業率、女性勞動參與比率及消費者物價指數。本實證結果可提供為政策研擬之依據，以改善生育環境，例如住宅政策上的調整、稅負優惠、生育補貼等。未來期能提高台灣的生育率，進而調整人口結構，以增加國家競爭力。Taiwan has been facing demographic transition in recent years, and turned into an ageing society with fewer children. The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has been lower than 1.3 children since 2003. From then on, Taiwan has become the lowest-low fertility country. Taiwan’s government regards this situation as a national security issue, and attempts to encourage fertility behavior by subsidy. In order to improve it, the academic researchers have sparked off numerous studies to investigate the underlying reasons affecting the fertility decision. Most of them address this issue from demographic and sociological perspectives, yet few studies emphasize from the economic viewpoints. However, the opportunity cost of raising children might be the main factor leading to low fertility rate. This study therefore integrates sociological and economic factors which are housing price index, female labor force participant rate, unemployment rate, household income growth rate, and consumer price index growth rate to investigate the low fertility rate by Cointegration test. Furthermore, this study also employs Granger Causality test to realize the lead-lag relation among the variables. Results of this study present evidence that TFR is cointegrated with housing price and household income growth rate, i.e., TFR moves together with these two variables over the long horizon. According to Granger Causality test, TFR Granger causes housing price and female labor force participant; while TFR is Granger caused by unemployment rate, female labor force participant, and consumer price index growth rate. The results may provide suggestions to the policy makers, and improve the environment for enhancing fertility, such as the adjustment of housing policy, tax reduction, and fertility subsidy. In the long run, we expect to reshape the population structure gradually and increase the country’s competitiveness