The causality analysis between financial status of health insurance and socio-economic indexes

全民健康保險（簡稱健保或全民健保）的財務狀況，自民國84年開辦以來均呈現收支不平衡的現象。有鑑於此，本研究擬針對健保財務狀況的影響因子進行探討，故考慮國內整體的社會及經濟環境指標變數的變動趨勢，對健保保費收入與健保保費支出間的關係。此外，我們更納入保險主要指標（包含保險密度及保險滲透率）的概念，進一步探討社經指標對其影響程度。 本研究導入相關分析及多元廻歸等方法，研究解釋變數（包含GDP、經濟成長率、國民所得或每人國民所得、GNP或每人GNP、失業率、勞參率、人口數、就業人口數、平均薪資等）對因變數（包含健保保費收入、健保保費支出、健保保險密度、健保保險滲透率等）間的關係。其研究結果顯示，在相關分析部分，除經濟成長率對健保財務狀況的影響不顯著外，其餘變數對健保財務狀況關係呈現相關性。在廻歸分析部分，就業人口數的增加將造成健保保費收入增加及健保保險滲透率的提高，反之則呈現遞減，而失業率、GDP、人口數的成長將造成健保保費支出的增加及健保保險密度的上升。Since the institution of the current healthcare system in Taiwan, known as National Health Insurance (NHI), in 1995, its financial condition faces the imbalance of the funding and the expenditure. Based on this issue, this project aims to research on the factors impacting the NHI financial condition. The factors take into consideration of the socioeconomic issues and the changing trends of the various economic indicators affecting the funding and the expenditure of the NHI. In addition by encompassing the concepts of insurance penetration and insurance density rate, the project further analyzes the impact of the socioeconomic indicators on the NHI. The project adopts the application of correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis to study the influences of the variables: gross domestic products (GDP), economic growth, gross national products (GNP), unemployment rate, workforce participation rate, population, employment rate and average salary, have on the variables: NHI receiving premiums, NHI expenditures, NHI insurance density rate and insurance penetration rate. The results show that under the correlation analysis model all of the variables except for the economic growth rate have the association impact on the NHI financial conditions. As for the analysis under the multiple linear regression analysis, the increase of the employment does increase premium receiving and penetration rate of the NHI and vice versa. With the same respect the increase of the unemployment, GDP and population increase the expenditures of the NHI and the insurance density rate