Investor Sentiment and Analyst Behavior

本研究旨在探討投資人情緒是否影響到分析師的報導決策，以及分析師發佈預測和推薦時是否會注意到投資人情緒，亦即當投資人情緒較樂觀時，分析師是否會發佈較長期的預測以及較有利的股票推薦。本文以中央大學台灣經濟研究中心所編制之消費者信心指數作為投資人情緒的替代變數。研究結果與本文預期相符，當投資人情緒較高昂時，分析師會發佈較長期之盈餘預測以及較有利之推薦評等；同時也發現當投資人情緒上升，分析師之推薦評等亦向上修正。顯示分析師雖為專精且較為理性之投資人，然其行為仍受到消費者信心所影響。This study investigates the relation between investor sentiment and analysts' coverage decisions. Secondly, we also examine whether analysts who pay attention to investor sentiment issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and more favorable stock recommendations during high-sentiment periods. We use the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey from the National Central University to measure sentiment. We find that analysts tend to issue longer-horizon earnings forecasts and favorable stock recommendations when investor sentiment is more optimistic. Moreover, analysts tend to revise upward their stock recommendations during investor sentiment raise period. Taken together, these findings suggest that analysts are affected by investor sentiment even though they are more rational investors