Corporate credit risk measurement

論文名稱：公司信用風險之衡量校所組別：國立政治大學金融研究所畢業時間：九十年度第二學期提要別：碩士學位論文提要研究生：林妙宜指導教授：陳松男博士論文提要及內容：信用風險一直是整體金融環境非常重要的一環，銀行授信、商業交易、投資評估，都會對信用風險做仔細的研究與評估。本論文以台灣的公司為樣本，採用會計財務比率與股票價格，主要兩項反映公司體質的資訊，建構信用風險模型，期望能提供台灣公司信用風險衡量上，公正而有效的指標。以財務比率為基礎的區別分析模型，選取變數為獲利能力指標的常續性EPS、現金流量指標的現金流量對負債、成長率指標的盈餘成長率、償債能力指標的負債比率，與經營能力指標的平均收帳天數，這五項財務比率涵蓋企業繼續經營與財務狀況的各個層面。區別分析模型在財務危機前一年可達正確分類率91．67%。以股票市場價格為基礎的選擇權模型，可由每日之股票價格求算出預期違約機率，將市場對公司價值的衡量轉化為信用風險的程度，能即時掌握公司體質的變化，做出適當之因應。關鍵字：信用風險、財務危機、會計資訊、財務比率、區別分析、股票價格、選擇權模型、預期違約機率Title of Thesis: Corporate Credit Risk MeasurementName of Institute: Graduate Institute of Money and Banking, NCCUGraduate Date: June, 2002Name of Student: Lin, Miao-YiAdvisor: Dr. Chen, Son-NanAbstract:Credit Risk has been the great concern in the financial market. Before the bank grants a loan or the company makes deals and investment, they first consider the credit risk of the conterparty. The empirical study tries to construct the credit risk models based on the public firms in Taiwan. Using financial ratios and stock prices, the two main sources of corporate financial information, we expect to provide a fair and efficient indicator to measure the corporate credit risk in Taiwan.In the discriminant analysis based on accounting data, the model chooses five financial ratios that cover the corporate operation and financial situation. They are earnings per share, operating cash flow to total debt, equity substantial growth rate, and average days to accounts receivable. The discrimanant analysis model can accurately classify 91.67% of the data as being default or solvency one year before the financial distress.In the option pricing model based on stock prices, the expected default probability can be solved by daily stock prices. In this model, how the market values the firm is turned into the level of credit risk, which can help us catch the changes of corporate soundness and make proper responses.Keywords: Credit Risk, Financial Distress, Accounting Data, Financial Ratio, Discrimanant Analysis, Stock Prices, Option Pricing Model, Expected Default Probabilit