CHINA ROOM AIR CONDITIONER & PACKAGE AIR CONDITIONER GROWTH AND ITS IMPACT ON ELECTRICAL POWER SUPPLY: THE FORECAST PERSPECTIVE

這篇研究是依據中國過去十數年空調器成長數量為dependent variables，用回歸分析找出這段期間各項經濟指標中與空調器成長有相關性者為independent factors，所產生的數學模式用來預測中國在2020欲達成小康社會目標時空調器數量。這個分析的應用是依照大陸現行空調器EER值推算2020電力的尖峰負荷，因為空調是造成尖峰負荷主因，所以推論如果將空調器耗能標準提高20%，可以省下3.6個三峽水力發電的裝置容量(18GWx3.6)。也就是大陸供電裝置容量從現在的400GW，增長到2020的900~1000GW時，可節省66GW的裝置容量。Chinese market opened to the world since the establishment of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (SEC) in 1978. Its economic growth starts taking off from 1992 when the 2nd SEC at Shanghai was established. China’s yearly Gross Domestic Products (GDP) growth exceeds 9% on average since then. The trend continued after China entered World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Their GDP reached Rmb18.232 trillions in 2005. Behind the magnificent growth, is the enormous amount of energy and nature resource consumption, thus lead to the environment damage. In 2003, China announced its plan to build a harmonious society (or well-off society or xiao-kang in mandarin) by 2020. This plan outlined the standard of living for the future Chinese. It will be a society composed mainly by the middle class, with a projected 1.5 billion total population, of which 60% will live in the urban area. GDP will grow to 4 times of what it was at 2000; which will make China the third largest economic in the world. However, can China sustain the growth? Is the supply of energy and resource unlimited? Can the rest of the world afford a developed country with 1.5 billion populations without the shortage of nature resource shortage elsewhere? This study reviewed China’s residential and light commercial unitary air conditioning market growth trend from 1995 to 2005. This segment represents 85%~90% of the total Chinese market. The study used several business forecasting methods, to develop a model for estimating the room air conditioner (RAC) and package air conditioner (PAC) market growth till 2020, by considering various social and economical factors such as GDP growth, construction of new buildings, disposal income (DPI) and retail price changes. The forecast can be used to estimate the peak time electrical power demand with the Energy Efficiency Ratio (EER: rated Cooling Capacity in Watt / Power Input in Watt) of RAC and PAC required by the code. Our study found that China should impose a much more stringent EER code in order to reduce peak electrical power demand and avoid supply shortage during the summer, since the economy is predicted to continue to outgrow the power supply. The alternative is to build more new power plant only to meet the summer peak load, while most other time of the year the plants may stay idle. According to Asia Pacific Economics Cooperation, Energy Standard Information System (APEC ESIS) current China EER requirement is around 25% below Taiwan, and most developed countries. Japan Air Conditioning Journal (JARN) and Building Services Research and Information Association from UK (BSRIA) reported that the size of China’s air conditioning market size exceeded Japan in 2003 to become the world second largest in the world, after only the United States. China now manufactures more mini split than any other places in the world. There should be no technical difficulty to adopt the more stringent code to help reducing the peak load demand from air conditioning, since most advance technologies are now available to the market and local manufacturers. Some Chinese air conditioning manufacturers already have a capacity surplus. Exporting their products to the developed countries such as the US and Japan, will require them to meet the EER code of the country of destination. This may speed up the introduction of higher EER design products in the local Chinese market