一九九O年代中國安全環境與政策選擇之研究

本論文主要在釐清中國安全決策組織及流程，進而從建構主義（Constructivism）研究途徑切入，探討一九九○年代中國領導人對其國際安全、周邊安全、台海安全、政治安全、經濟安全、軍事安全及環境安全威脅之認知，剖析中國領導人如何做出政策選擇。 本文採取文獻分析法，對一九九○年至二○○○年間，中共中央、國務院頒發的各類文件、通知及決定，主要領導人在中國共產黨歷屆黨代表大會、中央委員會開（閉）幕講話，人大及其常委會歷次會議之工作報告、決議，國務院所提出的政府工作報告、下發之各類規定等進行摘要並作內容分析；並參考各國學者在中國決策及安全研究上之論點，從相關文獻中發掘中國安全決策制定流程與規律，據以驗證本文所提出的三項假設。本論文獲致如下結論： 一、一九九○年代中國確實擁有一個良好的外部安全環境，有利於中國大陸集中精力發展經濟。中國的主要安全威脅在內部，中國面臨權力繼承問題、貪污腐敗、失業率攀升、國企效率低下、壞債嚴重、環境污染、生態破壞等安全威脅，但中國卻刻意誇大美國的霸權主義、美在亞太軍事部署、台灣獨立、西化及分化等外在安全威脅。 二、中國在安全政策選擇上，時常陷入原則與務實、多邊與雙邊、開放與封閉、改革與穩定、自力更生或仰賴進口、堅持主權或擱置主權的矛盾。但隨著中國綜合國力日益提升，參與國際體制日深，其國家行為日趨開放、務實，積極參與多邊體制，並提出新安全觀及擱置主權爭議等主張，營造和平穩定的周邊安全環境。 三、本文三項假設獲得印證，第一、一九九○年代中國領導人漠視腐敗、失業、環境污染及生態破壞等問題，衝擊社會穩定，並使環境安全惡化，甚至造成跨國性威脅。第二、中國誇大霸權主義及台海安全的危害性與急迫性，進而提出推動建立國際政治與經濟新秩序的構想，發動具有針對性的軍事演習，因此被視為國際現存秩序的挑戰者，激化兩岸衝突與對立，進而引起周邊鄰國對中國崛起的憂慮。第三、中國積極參與聯合國活動，加入多邊安全體制，有效化解周邊國家對中國崛起的疑慮；建立社會保障及黨政領導人退休、任期制，有效化解下崗職工不滿及權力繼承危機。在經濟安全方面，中國正視轉軌過程中國企、貿易、金融、財政、糧食、能源等問題，推進社會主義市場經濟體制，加入世貿組織，實施分稅制等，有利於建立國內市場的統一規則並與國際經濟體制接軌The purpose of this thesis aims to clarify China’s security policy-making organization and process, and via constructivist study probe Beijing’s leaders’ recognition of China’s international, peripheral, Taiwan Strait, political, economic, military and environmental securities in the 1990s. It also aims to analyze how Chinese leaders made these policy options. This thesis adopted documentary analysis methodology to excerpt and make an analysis of contents of the documents and notices issued by the Chinese Communist Party Center and State Council between 1990 and the year 2000; speeches delivered by major leaders at opening or closing ceremonies of previous party congresses and central committees; work reports and resolutions issued at previous conferences of the National People’s Congress and its standing committees; government work reports prepared by the State Council and its regulations sent to lower units. This thesis also referred to points of view, provided by scholars of different countries, on China’s policy-making and security research, and discovered China’s security policy-making establishment process and regular patterns from related documents verifying three assumptions provided by this paper. The conclusion of this paper is as follow: 1. In the 1990s, China had a good external security environment, which was beneficial to its efforts to develop the economy. China’s major security threats came from the interior. Beijing had to face power inheritance problems; corruption; rising unemployment rates; low efficiency of state-owned enterprises; serious bad debts; environmental pollution, and ecological damage. However, China purposely over exaggerated external security threats such as American hegemonism, US military deployment in Asian Pacific, Taiwanese independence, westernization and polarization. 2. On security policy options, China often fell into contradictions - between principles and pragmatism; multi-lateral and bi-lateral; opening up and closed doors; reform and stability; self-reliance or dependence on imports, and insisting on sovereignty or shelving sovereignty. Nevertheless, following the gradual rise of China’s comprehensive national power and its deeper involvement in international systems, China’s national behavior became more open and pragmatic, and China actively joined these multi-lateral systems. In addition, it brought about new views of neo-security and shelved sovereignty disputes in order to make a peaceful and stable neighboring environment. 3. Three assumptions were verified in this paper. First, in the1990s, Chinese leaders ignored corruption, unemployment, environmental pollution, and by ecological damage, which impacted social stability and caused worsening environmental security, even bringing about translational threats. Secondly, China over exaggerated the harmfulness and urgency of hegemonism and the Taiwan Strait security, to drive the conception of building a new international political and economic order, as well as initiating aimed military exercises. Therefore, China was taken as a challenger of the current international order, and the cause of conflict and confrontation across the Taiwan Strait. This brought about anxiety in the neighboring countries about China’s rise. Thirdly, China actively participated in UN activities and the multi-lateral security mechanism, thus effectively reconciling neighboring countries’ anxiety over China’s rise. It established social security as well as party and government leaders’ terms of retirement and tenure of office, which effectively reconciled the dissatisfaction of laid-off workers and the power inheritance crisis. In terms of economic security, China was concerned about state-owned enterprises, trade, banking, finance, and food and energy problems during their transferring process. To drive the structure of the socialist market economy, to enter the World Trade Organization, to perform dual tax system, which was beneficial to establish unified regulations of domestic market and connected to international economic structure