The study of relation between Consumer Confidence Index and Real Estate Industry

在國外, 消費者信心指數常被用來預測經濟情勢 (如股價、油價、消費支出等) , 縱然有部份學者對此抱持著懷疑的看法。在台灣, 則因缺乏┌消費者信心指數┘的資料, 以往一直無人從事這方面的相關研究。房地產業是火車頭工業, 也是民生工業; 其榮枯不但影響國家之經濟發展, 亦影響到每一個人居住的能力。因此, 房地產業的景氣波動, 是與大家休戚相關的。透過工商時報所編製的┌消費者信心指數┘資料, 與房地產預售屋公開價的變動情況, 我們發現：在大台北區, 兩者之間呈顯著正相關, 而且前者領先後者九個月。The forecast of Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) to Economy isusally used in many nations for years, even someone suspectsthe effect of it. For lack of CCI, there is seldom such studyin Taiwan. Estate industry is an important one, due to itsinfluences on national economic development and the capacityfor purchasing dwelling house of everyone, therefore, peoplepay much attention to it in Taiwan. By collecting the data ofCCI and open-price of pre-sold housing in Taipei Area, we canrecognize that there is obviously positive relation betweenthem. And the former is a leading in- dicator with 9 monthsAhead