Future trajectories of renewable energy consumption in the European Union

Renewable energy sources (RESs) are able to reduce the European Union (EU)’s dependence on foreign energy imports, also meeting sustainable objectives to tackle climate change and to enhance economic opportunities. Energy management requires a quantitative analysis and the European Commission follows the performance of each Member State (MS) in order to define the corrective measures towards 2020 targets. Starting from historical data reported in the Eurostat database and through a mathematical model, this work proposes future trajectories towards 2020 of the share of energy from renewables (REs) in terms of gross final energy consumption (GFEC). Furthermore, a quantitative analysis based on two indices—(i) the share of REs in GFEC, and (ii) gross final renewable energy consumption (GFREC) per capita—permits a comparison among 28 MSs. The share of REs in GFEC in EU 28 varies from 19.4% to 21.8% in future trajectories towards 2020. Sweden and Finland occupy the top part of the ranking, while six MSs (Belgium, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom) are not able to reach the 2020 targets