Simulating the Cost of Social Care in an Ageing Population

In this paper we present an agent-based model of the ageing UK population. The goal of this model is to integrate statistical demographic projections of the UK population with an agent-based platform that allows us to examine the interaction between population change and the cost of social care in an ageing population. The model captures the basic processes which affect the demand for and supply of social care, including fertility, mortality, health status, and partnership formation and dissolution. The mortality and fertility rates in this population are drawn from statistical demographic projections until 2050 based on UK population data from 1951-2011. Results show that, in general, we expect the cost of social care in the UK to rise significantly as the population continues to age. An in-depth sensitivity analysis performed using Gaussian Process Emulators confirms that the level of care need within the population and the age of retirement have the most profound impact on the projected cost of social care