POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF ASEAN OPEN SKY 2015 ON REGIONAL AIRPORT : CASE STUDY JUANDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

ASEAN open sky is a policy designated to open ASEAN air space in the form of an ASEAN Single Aviation Market which is targeted to be completed in 2015. It is as an expression of the needs of the ASEAN Economic Community and has been commitment to by the heads of the ASEAN countries. Indonesia is a huge market, considering half of the ASEAN market is in Indonesia, giving rise to the opinion that the success of the ASEAN open sky policy depends on the participation of Indonesia. The Indonesian government had chosen five international airports in Indonesia with which to implement open skies. Among the five airports, Juanda�s position has the least potential. This is because the airport is not a major connecting airport in Indonesia, it has less potential for tourism than others, and the geographical position of the airport sees it flanked by two other major airports, Jakarta and Denpasar. Even with these weaknesses, the effect of applying the open sky policy will impact the Juanda Airport. Thus, this study analyses some of the possible effects that will occur at Juanda Airport include with the possible new routes and propose a strategy for Juanda Airport to deal with open skies. This study analyses some of the possible effects that will occur at Juanda Airport based on two scenarios. Each scenario discusses the possible effects of the open sky policy on the total passengers, frequency of flights, flight routes, and Juanda airport�s competence based on airport charge. The first scenario is that Juanda Airport will implement the open skies in the ASEAN region. Here the effects of open sky are shown, with regards to the weekly frequency of flights and annual total seats compared to prior to open sky policy being implemented. This section also analyses several possible new routes, including market share analysis and estimation of the number of passengers on these new routes. The second scenario is that Juanda Airport will implement the open skies outside the ASEAN region. With a methodology similar to the first scenario, this section analyses the effect of open skies on the total passengers, frequency of flights, and potential new routes to destinations outside the ASEAN region. The final section analyses the competence of Juanda Airport compared to other domestic airport competitors in Indonesia region and the ASEAN region based on airport charges. If open sky policy is adopted at Juanda Airport, the increase of the total number of passengers and frequency of flights in the ASEAN region is very significant compared to outside the ASEAN region despite also being increased. The new routes in to the China, Korea, and Australia region which indicates the possibility of success compared to new routes available in the ASEAN region