SCENARIO PLANNING PADA DHL EXPRESS INDONESIA

To maintain company�s position in the industry, each company have to have ability to adapt with changes and uncertainty which are coming from the business environment. DHL Express Indonesia, is one of company that run in transportation and express delivery industry where lot�s of uncertainty could happened from many external environment which can give huge impact to the business continutity. Nowadays, DHL still in reactive position for each changes that happened to company and also still doing traditional forecasting using trend extrapolation from historical data and focus on sales / financial number. Scenario Planning for DHL Indonesia aims to help DHL to anticipate future uncertainty based on suitable key driving forces that can shape company�s future. By knowing key driving forces, DHL can figure out four type of future scenario from four quadrant based on two extreme uncertainty axes. From each scenario, DHL could detect implication and suitable option / strategy if one specific scenario happen in the near future. This study using primary source from company�s top level management through direct interview. Additon to that, questionare for middle level management being distributed to validate interview result (triangulation method). Indirect interview with key customer is also being done to know DHL position from customer�s eyes. Result of the study is knowing key driving forces for DHL are regional economic development, terorism, and regulation changes in Indonesia. Based on that forces, four future scenario that might be face by DHL based on extreme uncertainty axes are: From Indonesia to the Worl