PERMINTAAN IMPOR DAN FLUKTUASI HARGA BAWANG PUTIH DI INDONESIA

The purposes of this research are to determine what factors affecting the volume of import demand, the trends of import volume and the price projection of garlic in Indonesia. Descriptive method was applied in the analysis by using secondary data. Time series data from 1991 until 2010 were used in the analysis such as the price of garlic in Indonesia, price of garlic in China, price of shallot in Indonesia, productivity of garlic in Indonesia, the exchange rate, and national income. The price of garlic in Indonesia will be projected with monthly prices data of garlic in Indonesia from 2005 - 2011. The trend import volume of garlic showed that there will be additional of import volume around of 21.9124 ton per year. Determinant factors which significantly affecting import volume of garlic are the price of garlic in Indonesia, national income, exchange rate and the productivity of garlic in Indonesia. The result of projection on import price of garlic during 6 years showed that there will be cycles of two years of high price and three years of low price and followed by an increase in prices