KAUSALITAS ANTARA DEFISIT ANGGARAN DAN JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR, INFLASI SERTA PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA: 2000:1-2012:4

The aim of this study is to empirically examine the causality between budget balance (deficit) and inflasi, real money supply, and economic growth in Indonesia for the period of 2000:1- 2012:4, analyze the response of a variable to shock other variable, and analyze the contribution a variable not only to own variabel but also to other variabel. This study use structural vector autoregression (SVAR) that including impulse response function, and variance decomposition. SVAR estimations show that occur unidirectional causality from budget balance (deficit) with economic growth, from inflation with economic growth, from inflation with real money supply, and from real money supply with economic growth. Impulse response function show that a shock of budget balance (deficit) negatively responded by economic growth. Furthermore, a shock of inflation negatively responded by economic growth and a shock of inflation negatively responded by real money supply. Latest, a shock of real money supply positively responded by economic growth. Variance decomposition show that variability of budget balance (deficit) can explained by a shock of inflation and economic growth. Variability of inflation can explained by a shock of budget balance (deficit). Furthermore, variability of economic growth and real monet supply can explained by a shock of budget balance (deficit) and inflation. Overall, variability of each variabels dominated by own variabel