ELECTORAL VOLATILITY NASIONAL DAN LOKAL: Studi Tentang Stabilitas Sistem Kepartaian Indonesia Pasca Orde Baru

Electoral conditions after the New Order, 1999, 2004, and 2009 show an instability both at the national and local Kota and Kabupaten Malang. Parties that pass the threshold as PDIP, Golkar, PKB, PPP, PAN, the PBB continue to decline and bring the new party like PKS and the Demokrat (election 2004), Hanura and Gerindra (elections 2009) entering the system. The purpose of this study seeks to analyze the high electoral volatility, electoral volatility change and sustainability, as well as the source of the cause of electoral volatility in both the national and local Kota and Kabupaten of Malang. This study only analyzes the dependent variable, namely the national and local electoral volatility, using a comparative approach. The main element is comparing the index of electoral volatility either individually (total volatility) and ideological blocks (block volatility). Calculation of total volatility is based on the Pedersen formula (1979), while the calculation of block volatility based on a formula Paul Pening et.al. (2006). In order to support the analysis in this study, the authors use aggregate data of national and local election results obtained from the General Elections Commission (KPU). In addition to quantitative data, analysis of this study is also equipped with qualitative data obtained from the observation, in-depth interviews and focus group discussion, especially for analysis at the local level. The findings of this study indicate that electoral volatility post-New Order Indonesia is high, there is a change and the sustainability of electoral volatility, as well as any combination of the cause of the sources of electoral volatility in both the national and local level. The average national electoral volatility of the individual parties (total volatility) of 29.15% (28.55% for the 2004 election and 29.74% for 2009 election). In terms of ideological blocks (Islam and Nationalist), the average nationwide block volatility of 6.53% ((2004 election was 2.22% and 2009 election was 10.83%). Conditions electoral volatility is not much different from the national local Kota and Kabupaten Malang. In terms of individual parties, the average electoral volatility of Kota and Kabupten Malang (total volatility) of 29.72% and 22.41%. At the Kota and Kabupaten Malang, the electoral volatility in the 2004 election was 32.27% and 27.17% while in the 2009 election 19.82% and 27.99%. In terms of ideological block (Islam and Nationalist), the average of Kota Malang block volatility was 6.47% with details of 2, 89% (elections 2004) and 10.05% (2009 election), while Kabupaten Malang was 7.77% with the details 0.51% (election 2004), and 15.03% (elections 2009). The high electoral volatility post-New Order Indonesia both national and local level Kota and Kabupaten Malang is caused by a combination of several factors: First, the national factor consisting of the electoral system, the threshold of votes / seats. Second, local factors was the declining support for NU and Muhammadiyah, the movement of popular cadres and party cadres. Third, the party's internal factors consisting of the conflict parties, the performance of the party. Fourth, the voting behavior factors like voter pragmatism