ANALISIS PENYEDIAAN SAPI POTONG DALAM MENDUKUNG KECUKUPAN DAGING SAPI DI PROVINSI PAPUA BARAT

The objectives of this study are: (1) to determine the level of beef consumption and to analyze the factors affecting beef consumption in the West Papua Province. (2) Estimate amount of beef that should be produced every year . (3) Estimate the number of productive-cows to get the maximum profit with the technical constraints of production, (4) Estimate the investment needs of the productive-cows every year to achieve beef selfsufficiency in West Papua Province, and (5) To set the determinant factors of productivity in supply of beef cattle breeders. The experiment was conducted in the Province of West Papua. The data of this study are secondary and primary data. The collected secondary data were the time series ones consists of (a) number of beef consumption and number of slaughtered cattle (1980-2008) and (b) population and prices of beef, chicken meat, pork meat, rice, casava, squid, tuna fish, and the income per capita (1990-2004), both of them were collected from all districts and cities in West Papua. The colllected primary data were (a) number and composition of cattle, and (b) used input production, both collected from 189 farmer household in Manokwari District. This primary data were used to determine the function of breeder production. The other primary data were collected from 103 respondents in Manokwari and Sorong Districts to analyze the factors affecting the productivity of farmers. The data were analyzed using the Ordinary Least Square Model, Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results showed that: (1) the annually beef consumption per capita in the West Papua Province is 0.79 kg. This beef consumption has positive correlation significantly with the population, income, squid prices and cassava prices, but has negative correlation significantly with the price of pork meat , the price of chicken meat and rice price (2) The estimated amount of total people population, total slaughtered cows and the total needs of consumpted beef in the Province of West Papua in 2014 each was 805.406 persons, 10.739, 23 animal unit (a.u) and 966 530,7 k