Kurva Phillips di Indonesia, 2000Q1�2010Q3

Abstract. This thesis aims to analyze the existence of the Phillips curve and the pattern formation of inflation expectation and the shape of nonlinear Phillips curve in the Indonesian economy, 2000Q1�2010Q3. In addition, this thesis also analyzes the existence of the Phillips curve in the pre and post implementation of the ITF. The results obtained by using OLS method shows that the expectations augmented Phillips curve and the New Keynesian Phillips curve models cannot give a clear results of Phillips curve existence in the Indonesia economy. Shocks variable such as percentage change of exchange rates and crude oil prices provide a very small effect on the inflation rate. Furthermore, the results obtained by using GMM method on the hybrid model of the New Keynesian Phillips curve shows that the Phillips curve exists in the Indonesian economy with the pattern formation of expectation in a backward-forward looking forms. Then it also concludes that the shape of the nonlinear Phillips curve in Indonesia, 2000Q1�2010Q3 is shaped as concave nonlinear Phillips curve and the Phillips curve exist in the pre and post implementation of ITF and sustain a behavior changes