Analisis ekonomi usaha ternak sapi perah rakyat sebagai upaya substitusi impor susu = The Economic Analysis of Smallholder Dairy Farmers for Milk Import Substitution

The demand for dairy products has been increasing rapidly. Presently Indonesia is still net importer of the dairy products. There is chance to increase development the dairy farming. The need for developing the dairy farming is not only to meet the domestic demand but also in line with the goverment objectives to increase fanner income, improve the income distribution, create employment, improve quality food of the people and save foreign exchange. In fact the dairy farming is one of the dominant component of the livestock rapid growth. The dairy farming system are dominated by smallholder dairy fanning. Their production is mainly intended for milk impor subtitution. In this regard, it is important to know the economic incentive and the comparative advantage of the domestic production. The result of the financial analysis is that the profit for small and large scale dairy farming in Lembang are Rp 29681,45 and Rp 34854,03 / animal unit / month, in Cilimus are Rp 9099,21 and Rp 22479,01 / animal unit/ month, respectively. The family farm income are Rp 203634,58 and .Rp 370539,58/ farm/ month in Lembang and Rp 129323,15 and Rp 235065,24/ farm./ month, each of for small and large scale dairy farming, respectively. The economic incentive criteria used in this study are Nominal Rate of Protection (NRP) and Effective of Rate Protection (ERP). They are computed at the farm level. The NRP are 41,85 % and 32,77 % for Lembang and Cilimus respectively. The NRP for milk, however, are positive and very high. The high NRP go to the dairy farming sector. � The ERP is varies with the type of farm scale in each regimes, 74,11 % -74,21 % in Lembang and 106,63 - 155,72 % in Cilimus. This study indicates, that the survival of the dairy farming system merely due to the excessive protection from the goverment. The goverment policy is biased to protect toward domestic milk producers. The analysis of comparative advantage criteria for dairy farming are domestic resource cost (DRC) or domestic resource cost ratio (DRCR). The result indicates that the DRC for Lembang are Rp 2179,89/$ and Rp 1944,46/5 or DRCR 1,06 and 0,94. The DRC in Cilimus are Rp 2584,63/$ and Rp 2183,36/$ or DRCR are 1,25 and 1,06 for small and large scale dairy farming, respectively. Base on this finding, it can be concluded only that the smallholder dairy farming for large scale in Lembang is efficient, but the others are not efficient in resource use. The sensitivity analysis shows that economic feasibility of the smallholder dairy farming are very sensitive to the level of production, international dairy product price and concentrate feed price, for forage price, wage rate and rale of interest are less sensitive. In general the results indicate that the dairy farming system in this study is in efficience on the resourse economic efficient criteria. but, it has economic prospect in the future. Key words: economic analysis -- smallholder dairy farmers -- milk -domestic resource cos