Multifractalidade e criticalidade auto-organizada da precipitação pluvial em Piracicaba-SP, Brasil

A precipitação pode ser entendida como um produto final de processos atmosféricos complexos, os quais variam no tempo e espaço, e pode ser considerada um dos mais importantes fatores dominante das características meteorológicas-climáticas de uma determinada área investigada. Neste trabalho, verificamos se a dinâmica da chuva em Piracicaba, São Paulo - Brasil é gerada por um processo multifractal e/ou pertence as classes dos sistemas com propriedade da criticalidade auto-organizada. Para detectar a correlação de longo alcance e o comportamento multifractal, aplicamos o método MF-DFA que sistematicamente detecta não-estacionariedades e tendências nos dados para todas escalas de tempo. Calculamos o expoente generalizado de Hurst, h(q), e o expoente de Renyi, (q). Os resultados mostraram a existência de correlações de longo alcance, caracterizadas por uma hierarquia dos expoentes de escala, consequência de um processo estocástico multifractal. Para as escalas menores, aproximadamente 8 meses, a dinâmica de chuva é gerada por um processo multifractal (o expoente de Hurst generalizado, h(q), diminui com o aumento de ordem q) significando que pode ser modelada utilizando os modelos de cascata. Para as escalas maiores, o valor de h(q) está entre 0,35-0,55 o que indica a multifractalidade mais fraca. A hipótese de que a precipitação pode ser um caso de Self- Organized Criticality é avaliada. Analisamos dois eventos: a quantidade diária de chuva e eventos de seca (dias sem chuva), ambos são fenômenos metereológicos os quais são fortemente ligados à precipitação. Verifica-se que a distribuição da quantidade diária de chuva exibe dois regimes de escala distintos para pequenas e grandes quantidades. O valor da razão desses expoentes encontrados confirmam os resultados que foram obtidos nas regiões com climas tropical e subtropical. No entanto, para a distribuição de eventos de seca encontramos dois expoentes de escala distintos com valores bem mais próximos comparados com os observados na quantidade diária de chuva. As propriedades multifractais e criticalidade auto-organizada deverão ser incorporados em modelos teóricos e simulações computacionais da dinâmica das chuvas e fenômenos relacionados.Rainfall can be understood as an end product of a number of complex atmospheric processes, which vary in space and time, and it may be considered one of most important dominant factor of the meteorological-climatic features of an specified investigated area. In this study, we observed if the dynamics of rain in Piracicaba, São Paulo - Brazil is generated by a multifractal process and / or belongs to classes of Self-Organized Criticality systems. To detect long-term correlations and multifractal behavior, we apply MF-DFA method that systematically detect nonstationarities and overcome trends in the data at all timescales. We calculated the generalized Hurst exponent, h(q), and Renyi exponent, (q). The results showed the existence of power-law long-term correlations which are described by a hierarchy of scaling exponents, that is the consequence of an underlying multifractal stochastic process. For smaller scales of about 8 months, the dynamics of rain is generated by a multifractal process (the generalized Hurst exponent, h(q), decreases with the increase in order (q) meaning it can be modeled using the cascade models. For larger scales, the value of h(q) is between 0:35 �� 0:55 indicating a weaker multifractality. The hypothesis that rainfall may be a case of Self-Organized Criticality is assessed. We analyze two events: the daily amount of rain and drought events (days without rain), both are weather phenomena that are strongly linked to rainfall. It appears that the distribution of the daily amount of rain displays two different scaling regimes for small and large intensities. The value of the ratio of these exponents confirms the results that were obtained in regions with tropical and subtropical climates. However, for the distribution of drought events we find two distinct scaling exponents with values that are closer than those observed in the daily amount of rain. The multifractal properties and self-organized criticality should be incorporated into theoretical models and computer simulations of the dynamics of rainfall and related phenomena.Rainfall can be understood as an end product of a number of complex atmospheric processes, which vary in space and time, and it may be considered one of most important dominant factor of the meteorological-climatic features of an specified investigated area. In this study, we observed if the dynamics of rain in Piracicaba, São Paulo - Brazil is generated by a multifractal process and / or belongs to classes of Self-Organized Criticality systems. To detect long-term correlations and multifractal behavior, we apply MF-DFA method that systematically detect nonstationarities and overcome trends in the data at all timescales. We calculated the generalized Hurst exponent, h(q), and Renyi exponent, (q). The results showed the existence of power-law long-term correlations which are described by a hierarchy of scaling exponents, that is the consequence of an underlying multifractal stochastic process. For smaller scales of about 8 months, the dynamics of rain is generated by a multifractal process (the generalized Hurst exponent, h(q), decreases with the increase in order (q) meaning it can be modeled using the cascade models. For larger scales, the value of h(q) is between 0:35 �� 0:55 indicating a weaker multifractality. The hypothesis that rainfall may be a case of Self-Organized Criticality is assessed. We analyze two events: the daily amount of rain and drought events (days without rain), both are weather phenomena that are strongly linked to rainfall. It appears that the distribution of the daily amount of rain displays two different scaling regimes for small and large intensities. The value of the ratio of these exponents confirms the results that were obtained in regions with tropical and subtropical climates. However, for the distribution of drought events we find two distinct scaling exponents with values that are closer than those observed in the daily amount of rain. The multifractal properties and self-organized criticality should be incorporated into theoretical models and computer simulations of the dynamics of rainfall and related phenomena.Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPE