Prediction of race pace in long distance running from blood lactate concentration around race pace

The aim of this study was to develop an equation for predicting the performance in 10 kilometers road race (10k), Half Marathon (21k) and Marathon (42k), using the blood lactate concentration (bLA) close to race pace. 64 runners of different levels completed the study (10k (n = 19): 32min-56min, 21k (n=24): 1h04min-1h57min; 42k (n=21): 2h38min-4h02min). A few days before their main competition, subjects conducted a test in track at constant pace over 2400m. They ran at two different speeds that were slightly lower (V1) or similar / faster than the competition expected pace (V2). bLa samples were taken during and after every pace. The results did not show any mathematical model to estimate the 10k mark. In the 21k, it was found a model that included V2 and bLA2: V21k (km / h) = (V2*1.085) + (-0.282*bLA2) -0.131, r2 = 0.97, ETE = 0.414 km / h. In the 42k, it was found a model that included V1 and BLA1: V42k (km/h) = (V1*1.085) + (-0.429*BLA1) -0.170, r2 = 0.81, ETE = 0.626 km/h. Two equations were capable of predicting performance, for 21k and 42k through bla concentration at a pace close to the expected for the competition