Immune predictors of oral poliovirus vaccine immunogenicity among infants in South India

Identification of the causes of poor oral vaccine immunogenicity in low-income countries might lead to more effective vaccines. We measured mucosal and systemic immune parameters at the time of vaccination with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in 292 Indian infants aged 6-11 months, including plasma cytokines, leukocyte counts, fecal biomarkers of environmental enteropathy and peripheral blood T-cell phenotype, focused on gut-homing regulatory CD4+ populations. We did not find a distinct immune phenotype associated with OPV immunogenicity, although viral pathogens were more prevalent in stool at the time of immunization among infants who failed to seroconvert (63.9% vs. 45.6%, p = 0.002). Using a machine-learning approach, we could predict seroconversion a priori using immune parameters and infection status with a median 58% accuracy (cross-validation IQR: 50-69%) compared with 50% expected by chance. Better identification of immune predictors of OPV immunogenicity is likely to require sampling of mucosal tissue and improved oral poliovirus infection models