Health economic aspects in the management of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

The broad aim of this thesis on ‘Health Economic aspects in the management of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease’ (COPD) was to study the natural history of the disease in order to inform the conceptualisation and development of a new economic model. Existing economic evaluations for COPD were critiqued and information on the natural history of the disease gathered though literature searches and analyses of two large datasets, a COPD randomised controlled trial called TORCH and a general population observational dataset called the Renfrew/Paisley (MIDSPAN) study. Particular attention was paid to identifying the COPD population using different diagnostic criteria. The elicitation of utility estimates under a number of circumstances was considered. A regression based prediction model was conceptualised and developed. Significant contributions of this thesis include, but are not limited to: a NICE COPD cohort were identified who were found to be at higher risk of all-cause and COPD mortality than a GOLD defined cohort; a mapping equation was successfully developed that predicts the EQ-5D from the SGRQ; and an entirely new concept for modelling COPD was developed that uses a series of regression equations to predict cost and effect based on lung function, symptoms and exacerbations and weighted by survival probability in order to generate a model with one arm representing current treatment and a second arm representing a comparator treatment. The thesis successfully combined information gathered throughout the period of research on the natural history of COPD with treatment effects in a novel way in order to conceptualise and develop a new economic model for COPD