Rare Vascular Plants in the Lake Simcoe Watershed: Planning, Prediction and Protection

Using the threat-status ranks for vascular plants found through Vegetation Sampling Protocol surveys within the Lake Simcoe watershed, this research looks at the protection of Vulnerable (S3) and Imperiled (S2) vascular plants within municipal planning zones and policy and planning documents. As well, several variables were tested to determine what can be used to predict the presence of rare plants. Land use maps revealed for Innisfil, Newmarket, Oro-Medonte and Barrie that 250.7 ha of Natural Heritage Features containing S2 and S3 plants are designated for protection, while 655.6 ha are being converted to development or open space. Protection zoning within these municipalities was shown to contain 969.5 ha of development and open space, which does not necessarily serve conservation goals. A series of t-Tests produced statistically insignificant results for Natural Heritage Feature size (P-value 0.99), Floristic Quality Index (P-value 0.92) and biomass (P-value 0.48) as indicators in predicting the presence of rare plants. Furthermore, land use within a 1 km radius around sites with rare plants and randomly selected non-rare plant containing sites, yielded one statistically interesting result from a stepwise logistic regression; Agriculture and Lawn produced a P-value of 0.09, with higher levels being associated with rare plants. This may be due to the rural landscape containing more natural areas. It can be concluded that vegetation surveys need to continue in order to uncover rare plants. In conjunction with locating these species, protection policy and planning documents should expand and solidify their inclusion of rare vascular plants, if hope is to remain for rare plant continuity, or possible decrease in rarity