Regional risks of wind damage in boreal forests under changing management and climate projections

We employed simulations by forest ecosystem (SIMA) and mechanistic wind damage (HWIND) models in upland boreal forests throughout Finland to study regional risks of wind damage under changing management preferences and climates (current, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) over 2010â 2099. We used a critical wind speed for the uprooting of trees as a measure of vulnerability, which together with the probability of such wind speed defined a level of risk. Based on that, we also predicted the stem volume of growing stock at risk and the amount of damage. In this work, medium fertility sites were planted to one of Scots pine, Norway spruce or silver birch, or to the tree species that was dominant before the final clear-felling. The vulnerability to wind damage, the volume of growing stock at risk and the amount of damage all increased and the most in the south, when the proportion of Norway spruce (with shallow rooting) of the growing stock increased. Under a severe climate warming, the proportion of Norway spruce decreased the most in the south, opposite to that of birch. This decreased the risk of damage in autumn (while birch is leafless), unlike in summer. The low risk of damage in the north was due to the large proportion of Scots pine.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author