A micro-scale simulation model of carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars using classification and regression methods

grantor: University of TorontoCurrent mobile source emission model has displayed a number of problems. First, conventional macro-scale models cannot consider vehicular modal events that affect emissions on a second-by-second basis. Second, some micro-scale models are estimated solely based on statistical relationship between emissions and modal events without considering vehicle characteristics. Finally, recent micro-scale models in physical approach has a complicated structure of modeling system and hence, they require very detailed information on vehicles and the modification of parameters is very difficult for novice users. In order to tackle the problems, this paper presents the development of a simple and robust micro-scale simulation model of CO2 emissions from passenger cars. The data utilized in this study is in-laboratory second-by-second emission test results for various types of cars under different driving conditions. All tested vehicles are classified into eight vehicle categories with respect to their average emission rates. For this task, Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method is employed to identify significant vehicle technology variables affecting CO2 emissions. For each vehicle group, the emission model is estimated using least-squares regression method as a linear function of modal activity variables. The detailed process of model development is presented and the performance of the proposed model is investigated by comparing model results with actual values as well as simulation results of another micro-scale model.M.A.Sc